The US is in a "very scary and dangerous position" when it comes to the metals and minerals needed for a wide array of defense, technology and energy applications, Robert Friedland, founder and executive co-chair of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference at Houston.
Friedland said he is encouraged by the recent shift to the Trump administration and its initial efforts to help miners, but the mining executive lamented that Wall Street does not understand the mining industry. During two separate panels covering mining on March 12 and 13, Friedland was emphatic that he wanted to "shake up" the audience and let them know the country was in a "really dangerous and scary position."
"Wall Street doesn't understand the scale of the problem," Friedland said. "It's too short term. Mining is a very long-term business. It takes 10 or 20 years to find a mine. It takes 5 or 10 years to build it, and it runs for 100 years."
The US has an "incredible natural resource endowment" but has failed to capitalize on those resources, Friedland said. Very few mines have been built in the US in the past several generations, and most people seem to have not been paying that much attention, he said.
"Most of the money in the capital system went into the Internet and broadband and semiconductors and Netflix and all kinds of sexy stuff, but the money didn't go to basic raw materials for 30 or 40 years," Friedland said.
Miners have frequently expressed frustration about being able to convince investors to put money into long-term projects where returns are often slow to materialize.
"I mean, it is a big problem that most Western companies and investors do not invest in mining," Robbie Diamond, founder, president and CEO of SAFE, an organization that promotes energy security initiatives, said on the sidelines of the conference. "They don't feel comfortable. It's not what the market wants us to do."
The challenge is particularly difficult for smaller miners, Elias Scafidas, CEO of Rio Tinto Group's battery metals division, said during one of the panels.
"The majors are lucky in that we can be shielded a little bit by our commodity diversification," Scafidas said. "So I'm able to invest in lithium now, and I'm able to take a long-term view. But that's difficult for companies in the West in general.
China was the leading producer of 30 of 44 designated critical minerals in 2024, according to the National Mining Association. In 2024, the US was 100% net import reliant for 12 of the 50 commodities identified by the US government in a 2022 list of critical minerals and was more than 50% reliant on imports for another 28 commodities, the industry group said.
Offsetting that reliance will be difficult given how long it takes to build a mine, a process that often stretches over more than a decade. That could mean looking to other sources of minerals in the meantime.
"We're a generation behind," Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale SA subsidiary Vale Base Metals Ltd., said during a conference panel. "You're not going to solve this posthaste focusing on a very narrow geographic lens. You need to look where the rocks are and where the opportunities are and think about different horizons."
During a panel with Friedland and other mining executives, Laura Lochman, the acting assistant secretary for the US Department of State's Bureau of Energy Resources, said she agreed that reliance on China for minerals and metals is a major problem facing the US.
"From the US government perspective, we understand that we need to work on our domestic side," Lochman said. The official said "the dominance of a single entity or a single country on all levels of the supply chain, from the mining to the processing to the recycling," combined with trade practices and subsidies in China, can lead to artificially low prices and disincentivize investments elsewhere, while making offtake agreements challenging.
Friedland called for the creation of a US sovereign wealth fund that could help solve the mining and supply chain issues facing the United States. The Trump administration could be open to such an idea, Friedland said, adding that he is hopeful as it seems that it is becoming easier to mine in the US.
"If we have a sovereign wealth fund, we could actually compete with China and Japan on an equal footing," Friedland said, adding that Chinese mining companies have easier access to capital through government development banks. "You don't have to make a net present value model or fight your way through hedge funds named after Greek Gods on Wall Street. ... We have to fight our way through Goldman Sachs and Stanley Morgan. It's nearly impossible."
However, those in the mining business should be well poised to make plenty of money soon, Friedland said.
"Half the world wants an energy transition or the greening of the world economy, and the other half of the world is very worried about national security," Friedland said. "These metals are going to get crazy valuable."
In addition to a lack of mines, the US has limited processing capability. Scafidas was asked during a panel about the cost of building a new operation like Rio Tinto's decades-old Kennecott copper smelter.
"I don't know that it's even possible to do it today," Scafidas said. "That's based on the permitting requirements, and I couldn't tell you what it would cost, but whatever it is, it's more than it costs in China."
