US renewable energy developers continue to navigate policy and tax credit changes under the Trump administration, with some accelerating development and others reprioritizing projects to meet tax credit deadlines.
The 10 largest owners of planned utility-scale solar and wind projects intend to add approximately 104.8 GW through 2029, comprising 67.8 GW of solar and 37.0 GW of wind energy, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
Planned solar capacity additions remained virtually unchanged from September's 68 GW and wind capacity additions increased by about 1 GW, the data shows.
While not all planned projects will necessarily materialize, the largest owners and developers had 11.0 GW of solar and 12.9 GW of wind under construction as of Nov. 19.
For solar, the largest developers have approximately 43.9 GW in early development and 1.9 GW in advanced development. About 13.2 GW and 2.4 GW of wind is in early and advanced development, respectively.
Looking out through 2030, developers have planned 271 GW of solar and 82 GW of wind in new capacity.
Several of the largest owners are also solar and wind developers. NextEra Energy Inc., for one, has a pipeline of approximately 13.6 GW of solar and 4.7 GW of wind, making it the largest developer overall, the largest solar developer and the second-largest wind developer. Invenergy LLC is the second-largest overall developer with 11.2 GW planned, and Electricité de France SA is the third-largest with a pipeline totaling 10.1 GW.
Developers face an accelerated end to key federal tax credits under President Donald Trump's July budget bill, with construction required to start within 12 months of its enactment.
In August, the Treasury Department issued guidance limiting the start of construction to the physical work test, eliminating the 5% safe-harbor rule typically used by developers. The administration has also hindered renewable energy development on both public and private lands, while developers continue to wait on guidance for foreign entity of concern restrictions.
With more policy certainty in place, developers are now turning to safe harboring materials for their project pipelines.
"We've safe harbored for tax credits, and we've safe harbored for [foreign entity of concern] compliance," NextEra President and CEO John Ketchum said during a Dec. 8 investor day conference. "Let me tell you, no one else can do this quite like us."
"We've secured a domestic battery supply to meet our expectations through 2029," Ketchum said. "We've secured solar panels to meet our expectations through 2029 as well, and we're making really good progress in solar and batteries through 2030."
AES Corp. has also extensively safe-harbored equipment and materials, President and CEO Andrés Gluski reassured analysts and investors during the company's Nov. 5 earnings call.
"Our 7.5-GW US backlog is entirely safe harbored and in our pipeline we have an additional 4 GW with safe harbor protections," Gluski said. "We also have line of sight to safe harbor an additional 3 to 4 GW before July 4, 2026, enabling us to bring online projects with tax credits through 2030."
Beyond NextEra's own pipeline, the race to meet the July 4, 2026, deadline will create potential acquisition opportunities for the renewables giant as undercapitalized developers shed assets, Ketchum said on the Dec. 8 call.
"It's not only that the competition will decline because of some of those things, we'll probably also see developers who didn't plan ahead sell assets, and those could create real buying opportunities for us," the executive said.
Developers are also working to meet increased demand from data centers. AES, for example, plans to build power generation as part of a development transfer agreement with a large data center customer, while NextEra can work with hyperscalers that want to bring their own power.
"When data centers want to get online now — and quickly — and they want to secure a load interconnect by bringing their own generation, we can accommodate that," Ketchum said Oct. 28 on a third-quarter call. "We have the solar and the storage that's ready to go, and then the gas can come behind it."
Market Intelligence considers a project as announced when it has a listing in an interconnection queue with an accompanying public announcement or permitting action. A project is considered in early development after permitting begins. For a project to be considered in advanced development, it must meet two out of five criteria: financing is in place, power purchase agreements are signed, equipment is secured, required permits are approved or a contractor has signed on to the project. A project is under construction when building activity begins; site preparation does not qualify a project for this status.
