Mid-America leads US multifamily REITs in counties with fast-growing workforce

Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. leads real estate investment trusts that own multifamily properties in US counties with an expected growth rate of at least 5% of their working adult population over the next few years.

The multifamily REIT owns 93 properties across these counties, accounting for about 31.5% of the REIT's overall multifamily properties across the US.

Based on data from Claritas Pop-Facts 2026, the working adult population — individuals aged 18 to 64 — is projected to grow by 5% or more in 203 US counties from 2026 to 2031.

In total, 249 multifamily properties are owned by REITs in these counties, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. The analysis included multifamily properties reported individually in public filings by REITs that trade on the Nasdaq, NYSE or NYSE American.

Trailing behind Mid-America Apartment is Camden Property Trust, owning 48 multifamily properties in these same counties, or about 27.6% of the REIT's total multifamily portfolio.

Independence Realty Trust Inc. came in third with 35 properties, representing 30.2% of all of the REIT's multifamily properties.

Counties with fastest-growing working adults

The working adult population is projected to increase to 207.5 million in 2031, only a 0.6% increase from the projected population of 206.2 million in 2026.

This age bracket is estimated to be over half — about 60.1% — of the total US population in 2026. In 2031, this proportion is expected to slightly shrink to 59.0%.

Eight out of the top 10 counties with the fastest projected working adult population growth from 2026 to 2031 were all from Texas: Rockwall, Kendall, Johnson, Kaufman, Liberty, Chambers, Williamson and Montgomery. Rockwall County had the highest expected working adult population growth from 2026 to 2031, at about 13.5%.

Completing the top 10 were Saint Johns County in Florida at No. 9, with expected working adult population growth of about 11.8%, and Pinal County in Arizona in the 10th spot, with expected working adult population growth of 11.7%.

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Along with growth in the working adult population, incomes in these 10 counties are expected to be higher in 2031. Median household incomes for the 10 counties are all expected to rise by 2031, with growth rates ranging from 3.5% to 16.2%. However, six of these counties are forecast to have lower growth rates than the expected US median household income growth of 11.3% by 2031.

Most of these 10 counties have lower rents, or even declining rents, compared with the national rent price growth rate. As of Sept. 30, the Zillow Observed Rent Index for all US homes and apartments increased 2.3% year over year. This indicated a slower growth rate that started in March.

In September, seven out of the 10 counties with the fastest-growing adult population posted lower rent price growth than the national rate. The Williamson and Montgomery counties in Texas both reported a decline in year-over-year rent price indexes, down 4.7% and 0.4%, respectively.

By contrast, Kendall County, Liberty County and Chambers County reported year-over-year rent price increases above the national growth rate, at 4.1%, 3.8% and 3.4%, respectively.

The Zillow Observed Rent Index represents a smoothed measure of the typical observed market rate rent across a region. The index is a repeat-rent index that is weighted to the rental housing stock to ensure it is representative of the entire market, not just homes listed for rent.

Counties with highest proportion of working adults

The Aleutians West in Alaska is projected to have the highest proportion of the working adult population to total county population in 2026, at 83.2%. However, this proportion is expected to drop to 82.0% in 2031, along with a decline in the population bracket by 1.0% from 2026 to 2031.

Aleutians East, also in Alaska, came in second, with a projected working adult population of about 82.8% of its total population in 2026. While its proportion is also expected to shrink to 81.3% in 2031, the actual working-age population of the Alaskan county is expected to have a five-year growth of 2.8% in 2031.

Radford City in Virginia is expected to have the third-highest proportion of working adults in relation to its total population in 2026, at 75.5%.

Based on their estimated populations from 2026 to 2031, half of the top 20 US counties with the highest proportions of working adults to their total populations are expected to see a decline in this metric over the next five years.

Of the 10 counties that will see a decline in their percentage of working adults over the analysis period, Loving County in Texas is projected to report the largest drop, at 11.8%, in 2031.