Gordon van Welie, the ISO New England president and CEO, said the region will still need firm, dispatchable generation as it transitions to clean energy.
"We cannot operate the system in the wintertime without a dependable energy source that can balance the system when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. I think policymakers sometimes lose sight of that fact," van Welie said Oct. 23 in Washington, DC, during remarks at the Nodal Power Trading Conference hosted by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Dispatchable emission-free resources could cut build costs and improve reliability, according to van Welie. In 2020, the New York ISO introduced the concept of dispatchable emission-free resources as part of a climate study. In the study, the grid operator defined dispatchable emission-free resources as energy resources that could provide reliability characteristics, such as dispatchability and ramping capability, for when renewable energy output is below demand.
"The problem is, that resource doesn't exist today. Maybe [small modular reactors] will fulfill the goal in the future, but for now, the balancing resource is natural gas," van Welie said.
President Donald Trump has called on the Northeast to increase its gas pipeline capacity, a move opposed by environmentalists in the region. However, van Welie expressed uncertainty as to whether new gas infrastructure can be brought into the region, noting a Massachusetts Supreme Court decision that blocked the state's electric distribution companies from entering into electric ratepayer-backed gas pipeline contracts.
"One of the things that we learned, though, is that the economics of large gas infrastructure investments, is that you really have to have a majority of the states participating," van Welie said. "That's the question. Will there be a sufficiently large coalition of states that are willing to do that? I think that's uncertain at this point."
Power traders specializing in the Northeast also expressed some concerns about the intermittency of renewables, as states in the region look to rapidly build out renewable generation.
"Prior to now, I don't think anyone's really asked the question, how do we supply power when there is no wind?" Regis Devonish, the head of Northeast term trading at AES Corp., told Platts on the sidelines of the conference. "When it comes to where we are trying to go with clean energy and renewables, it can be done; it just needs to be done in a responsible manner."
Long-term options
In September, ISO New England released a report showing that New England could achieve 85% of its emissions reduction goals by 2045 through a build-out of solar, land-based wind and short-duration battery energy storage.
Including small modular reactors (SMRs) and long-duration battery storage reduces total necessary capacity from 96 GW to 80 GW, according to the report. Without the deployment of SMRs, the modeling requires a large-scale build-out of offshore wind and battery storage to decarbonize during winter months.
As the federal government seeks to stymie the development of offshore wind, van Welie estimated the industry has been set back by at least a decade. SMRs also remain at least a decade away from deployment in New England, in van Welie's view.
"If we can actually bring the cost of SMRs down so that it becomes at least as cost-effective as offshore wind or more cost-effective than offshore wind, then I think by the time we get out into the middle 2030s, there might be other solutions to adding the emission-free energy onto the system," van Welie said.
In May, Canada started construction on the first of four SMRs at the Darlington nuclear power plant in Ontario. The first 300-MW reactor is expected to be in place by 2030 and connected to the grid, with the remaining three reactors, each also 300 MW, in place by 2035.
