Fifth Third's Comerica buy breaks recent US bank deal records

Fifth Third Bancorp's proposed $10.91 billion acquisition of Comerica Inc. smashed a slew of recent bank M&A records and could open the door for further large bank consolidation.

The tie-up is not only the largest bank deal announcement of 2025 and the second-largest since 2021, but it is also the first with a deal value exceeding $10 billion since 2021. US bank deals breaching that size have been rare, with only four since at least 2009.

The announcement comes on the heels of several other regional bank transactions with deal values of more than $1 billion, such as PNC Financial Services Group Inc.'s deal in September to acquire FirstBank Holding Co. and Huntington Bancshares Inc.'s July announcement to purchase Veritex Holdings Inc.

The uptick in regional bank M&A could compel other large banks to get back to dealmaking.

"The emerging question is whether other large regionals will feel compelled to respond with their own actions, as well," Piper Sandler analyst Scott Siefers wrote in a note. "While the universals will likely continue to fly above the fray, there is now a question of whether [Fifth Third's] transaction will act as the hoped-for catalyst for even more large bank consolidation."

While the Street has been expecting a surge in bank M&A, Fifth Third's stock reaction could give large banks even more dealmaking confidence on top of the friendlier regulatory environment. Fifth Third's stock price traded down just 1.4% on the day of the deal announcement.

"The market's response to Fifth Third as the buyer in today's deal may provide the confidence for other Super Regional banks to accelerate their M&A strategy," Stephens research team wrote in an Oct. 6 note.

Large dealmaking has already been accelerating alongside all bank deal announcements throughout 2025, with seven of the top 10 largest deals of the year announced after June 1.

As deal numbers rose, total deal value rose in turn. The first quarter recorded 35 transactions with a total deal value of $1.96 billion, while the second quarter saw 39 deals totaling $5.64 billion. The third quarter greatly surpassed both prior quarters, with 56 deals and $16.63 billion in deal value.

The $10 billion in added value from the Comerica deal brings the fourth-quarter total closer to the third quarter's at $11.18 billion, which already exceeds the combined deal value of the first and second quarters. As such, the third and fourth quarters now have higher deal values than any quarter since the fourth quarter of 2021.

The year-to-date total deal value of $35.41 billion is now higher than the combined deal value for 2022 through 2024, which totaled $29.42 billion. This year's total is inflated by large transactions, with Fifth Third's recent announcement, PNC's acquisition of FirstBank, and Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc. and Synovus Financial Corp.'s merger of equals accounting for 64.5% of the year's total.

Deals from 2021 still account for half of the top 20 largest transactions since that year. Fifth Third's acquisition of Comerica brings the number of 2025 deals in the rankings to five, including three in the top 10.

Columbia Banking System Inc. notched two of the 20 largest deals in that time, including its reverse merger with Umpqua Holdings Corp. in 2021 and this year's acquisition of Pacific Premier Bancorp Inc.

These largest deals were more expensive than the broader industry, as more deals tended to have deal value to tangible common equity (TCE) ratios above the industry median. Of the top 20 largest deals since 2021, 12 had deal value to TCE ratios over the industry median of 148.0%. The group's median was 154.5%, over 6 percentage points higher than the industry median.

Fifth Third's higher acquisition price for Comerica was likely warranted, analysts said after the deal announcement, considering that there could have been more than one bidder.

The 10 largest deals of 2025 mirrored this trend, turning out more expensive on average than the rest of the industry's deals. Of the top 10, eight were more expensive than the median. The group's median deal value to TCE ratio was 161.5%, compared with the industry median of 150.4%.

This year's largest deals also got more expensive over time. The two most expensive deals were announced in August and September, while the two least expensive deals were the earliest announcements on the list. Eastern Bankshares Inc.'s acquisition of HarborOne Bancorp Inc. had a deal value to TCE ratio of 99.8%, and Columbia's Pacific Premier buy in April had a ratio of 99.3%.