'Unstoppable' US solar industry powers through election uncertainties

Whatever the outcome of US elections in November, solar energy executives believe the industry's ascent will continue.

"Solar power is an unstoppable force," Howard Wenger, president of tracking system supplier Nextracker Inc., said in an interview at the RE+ trade show in Anaheim, Calif., taking place Sept. 9-12. "It's the lowest-cost form of energy on the planet, it's clean and easy to deploy [and] the resource is massive so it can be installed just about anywhere."

Supercharged by long-term tax incentives in President Joe Biden's 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), solar has emerged as America's dominant source of new generating capacity. Photovoltaic (PV) resources accounted for 67% of capacity added in the first half of 2024, putting the industry on pace to lead all new resources for a fourth consecutive year, according to a Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie report released at the event.

"It's exceeded just about every one of my dreams, as someone who's been in the industry for 40 years," said Wenger. "But we must go faster."

Rising demand for electricity — driven by datacenters, factories, electric vehicles and buildings — has created an urgency for renewable energy and energy storage industries to continue scaling up. But momentum hinges largely on a continuation of the IRA's lucrative clean energy tax credits, including roughly $800 billion to $1.2 trillion over 10 years, according to private sector and federal government estimates.

The IRA has proven "enormously effective, particularly for utility-scale solar in the US," Wenger said, calling tax credits for owners of renewable energy and energy storage projects "the bedrock" of the policy.

"As long as that gets retained, the market's going to keep growing in the US," he said.

The IRA's manufacturing tax credits have also borne fruit, with Nextracker opening a fleet of US factories across the country to make parts for its sun-tracking equipment. Domestic solar panel production capacity has nearly quadrupled to 31.3 GW since Biden signed the IRA, according to SEIA and Wood Mackenzie, although their report also cites large gaps in the US solar supply chain upstream of modules.

Wenger believes the IRA would survive even if former President Donald Trump prevails over Vice President Kamala Harris in the November election, and if Republicans were to complete a "sweep" by winning the Senate and maintaining the House of Representatives.

"Our perspective is very bullish ... because of where the jobs have been created: predominantly in Republican-controlled states," Wenger said. "Could there be some changes, adjustments? Yes. But will the core of IRA remain in a Republican-controlled White House and Congress? Yes, we believe that it will."

Bipartisan backing

Such sentiments echoed throughout the packed halls of the event — the industry's largest annual gathering — where solar's bipartisan backing was a central topic of discussion.

"There will not be a full overhaul of the IRA, hopefully," said Sandhya Ganapathy, CEO of EDP Renewables North America LLC, a US-based affiliate of Portuguese power company EDP SA.

The executive noted a recent letter from 18 GOP members of Congress to House Speaker Mike Johnson on the need to retain the IRA tax credits. They cited concerns among energy industries and their constituencies that Republican repeal efforts could undermine private investments in infrastructure projects.

"When you think about Ohio, when you think about Georgia, these are places where heavy-duty manufacturing is happening with renewables," Ganapathy said. "You can't deny that."

First Solar Inc. is expanding its thin-film solar manufacturing in Ohio, in addition to Louisiana and Alabama, while Hanwha Q Cells USA Inc. is building out crystalline PV ingot, wafer, cell and module manufacturing at two sites in Georgia.

SEIA released new polling data during the event that suggests widespread support for the IRA's clean energy incentives across party lines. The survey, conducted by Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research in August, found that 87% of voters support the tax credits. Over three-quarters of respondents who voted for Trump in 2020 also support federal clean energy tax credits, the survey found.

"Think about that: Almost four out of five Trump voters not only like solar, but they believe we should pass policies and support policies to incent clean energy development," SEIA President and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said Sept. 10 in the trade show's opening session.

Still, solar and the broader renewable energy and energy storage industries must continue to refine their messages when speaking with different communities across the country, said Luigi Resta, president of rPlus Energies LLC, a developer of energy storage and solar energy projects.

"The industry needs to do a better job of marketing," Resta said in an interview. "We have to get away from the slogans and the jargon and the complicated engineering approach and simplify it to the county commissioners and the ranchers and farmers. ... We need to figure out that 'Got Milk?' campaign."

'Up and to the right'

Even if the IRA survives the aftermath of November elections, a host of major challenges await the renewable energy industry in 2025 and beyond. Those under discussion at RE+ included grid interconnection and permitting reforms, import tariffs, domestic workforce expansion and the further buildout of US supply chains.

Despite such challenges, solar's market trajectory remains "up and to the right," Dan Shugar, founder and CEO of Nextracker, said during an RE+ presentation. "Draw your own conclusions, but that's what we're seeing."

"This industry has always faced regulatory uncertainty," added Hanson Wood, senior vice president of utility-scale development at RWE Clean Energy LLC, a US subsidiary of Germany's RWE AG.

"We don’t have a crystal ball, but we do have momentum," he said in an interview. "The challenges will always be there. If you don't like the challenges, you shouldn't be in the business because it's a business exclusively of problem solving."

Wood has learned to appreciate the uncertainties and to navigate the headwinds of the renewable energy business.

"What I've learned as a developer in this space for 24 years is that mostly we can adapt to the regulatory change," he added.