Most copper miners expected to book lower Q1 2024 earnings YOY

Most copper-focused companies are expected to book lower earnings in the first quarter compared to the previous year, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis of select copper miners and consensus analyst predictions.

Analysts expect first-quarter earnings per share to drop year over year for seven of the nine companies in the analysis, based on S&P Capital IQ consensus normalized EPS estimates for the period. Only one company is expected to report higher EPS year over year.

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, four miners are expected to report increased EPS, with one company unchanged. Four other companies are forecast to post quarter-on-quarter declines in EPS.

The estimates come amid a recent increase in copper prices driven by projected supply shortages and a positive demand outlook. Prices took off in March when Chinese smelters agreed to cut refined copper output due to a limited supply of raw material.

Analysts expect Southern Copper Corp. to book first-quarter EPS of 75 cents, down from $1.05 in the prior-year period but up from 58 cents in the prior quarter. In 2023, the company recorded the biggest positive change in the value of institutional investor ownership among the world's major miners, increasing by $19 million.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is expected to post EPS of 30 cents for the first quarter, declining year over year from 52 cents but rising quarter over quarter from 27 cents.

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. is projected to report a loss of 7 cents per share for the first quarter, swinging year over year from EPS of 11 cents and narrowing the previous quarter's loss of 37 cents. First Quantum looked for ways to improve its finances after the Panama government ordered the closure of its Cobre Panama mine in late 2023. The miner secured a $500 million prepay arrangement with top investor Jiangxi Copper Co. Ltd. and launched offerings of equity and senior notes. It is also exploring the sale of certain assets.

Analysts forecast Lundin Mining Corp.'s first-quarter EPS at 11 cents per share, compared to 19 cents in the first quarter of 2023 and 10 cents in the fourth quarter of 2023.

– Read S&P Global Commodity Insights' latest Commodity Briefing Service report on copper. – Check Commodity Insights' consensus metal price forecasts.

Taseko Mines Ltd. is the only copper miner expected to increase its first-quarter EPS year over year. Analysts expect Taseko Mines to report EPS of 2 cents, rising from 1 cent in the comparable 2023 period but down from 6 cents in the previous quarter.

The company's Gibraltar mine in Canada produced 122.6 million pounds of copper in 2023, increasing by 26% from 2022 and above annual guidance. Taseko Mines entered an agreement in late March to acquire the remaining 12.5% interest in the Gibraltar operation.

Capstone Copper Corp. and Ero Copper Corp. are projected to book lower earnings both year over year and quarter over quarter. Capstone is expected to book earnings of zero cents per share for the first quarter, dropping from 2 cents per share recorded in the first and last quarters of 2023.

Analysts pegged Ero Copper's first-quarter EPS at 13 cents, compared to 24 cents in the first quarter of 2023 and 21 cents in the fourth quarter of 2023.