24 Jan, 2024
Datacenter power demand to double in three years – IEA
|
Workers in a server room. The datacenter industry is among the fastest-growing customers for the power sector, according to the IEA. |
Of the 8,000 datacenters in operation globally, 33% are based in the US, where datacenter electricity consumption is set to grow from 200 TWh in 2022 to almost 260 TWh in 2026, when it would account for 6% of total power demand, the IEA said in its Electricity 2024 report.
In the European Union, demand will grow by 50% to reach 150 TWh in 2026, the organization said. In Ireland, where the datacenter market is developing particularly rapidly thanks to a favorable regulatory environment, datacenters could account for almost one-third of electricity demand in 2026, the IEA said.
The rising use of AI in various sectors is increasing the overall power demand of datacenters at the same time, the IEA said. A typical Google search uses 0.3 watt-hours of electricity, while OpenAI LLC's ChatGPT requires 2.9 watt-hours for a request.
"Considering 9 billion searches daily, this would require almost 10 TWh of additional electricity in a year," the IEA said.
Cryptocurrencies will also use more power. In 2022, crypto mining accounted for 110 TWh of demand globally, and the IEA expects this to grow 40% by 2026.
Datacenters could reduce their energy use by using new technologies, however, the organization added. The main drivers of datacenters' electricity consumption are their cooling systems and the servers themselves, along with power supply systems, storage devices and communication equipment.
High-efficiency cooling systems and even the deployment of AI to adapt the operation of datacenters can help drive down power usage significantly, the IEA said.
Eren Çam, electricity analyst and lead author of the IEA report, also called for more policy oversight, describing it as "crucial to regulate this surge."
Nuclear to hit record in 2025
The IEA expects overall global power demand to grow by an average of 3.4% each year in 2024 through 2026, after a slight slowdown to 2.2% growth in 2023.
New fossil-free power generation capacity will cover all of the world's growth in power demand in the coming three years, the organization said.
Most of the growth in consumption will come from emerging economies, while heavy industries in Europe face ongoing cost pressure which dials back demand.
Alongside the buildout of renewables, the IEA also highlighted a more prominent role for nuclear.
Even as some countries phase out nuclear, generation from the technology is set to reach an all-time high globally in 2025, driven by growing output in France and Japan, as well as new construction in China, India, South Korea and parts of Europe. Between now and 2026, an additional 29 GW of new nuclear is expected to come online globally, more than half of that in China and India.
At the COP28 climate conference in Dubai in December, more than 20 countries committed to tripling their nuclear power generation capacity by 2050. Achieving that target relies on reducing construction and financing risks, Çam said at a press briefing on Jan. 23.
Projects starting construction between 2010 and 2020 had an average delay of around three years, with some projects, especially in the US and Europe, up to eight years behind schedule, the IEA noted.
Meanwhile, the share of coal-fired power generation will drop to below one-third by 2026 from 36% in 2023, the IEA said. Even though new coal plants are still being built, for instance in Asia, "they are not running as much as they used to," Çam said.
Reliability risks are on the horizon for countries with large hydropower fleets, the analyst noted. "Weather impacts are a big source of uncertainty," Çam said, with droughts making production less stable in many parts of the world.