Ontario is beginning a process to potentially add up to 4,800 MW of new nuclear generation in preparation for rising electricity demand in the Canadian province.
Bruce Power LP will begin community consultations and conduct an environmental assessment for federal approval to determine the feasibility of adding the new nuclear capacity to its current site, Ontario Energy Minister Todd Smith said July 5. It would be the first large-scale nuclear build in more than three decades.
"With our plan already in place to meet [electricity] demand this decade, we are starting the pre-development work to identify future generation options, including reliable, affordable and clean nuclear energy, that will power our province into the future," Smith said.
Bruce Power, operator of the Bruce A and Bruce B nuclear plants, produces 6,200 MW at eight units, equal to about 30% of Ontario's electricity needs. It is owned by a consortium that includes TC Energy Corp. and OMERS Infrastructure, which is owned by the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System and is leased to the province.
Two of the eight units were refurbished in an effort completed in 2012, and Bruce Power plans to refurbish the remaining six under an agreement with the province that will keep them operating into the 2060s.
Federal approval for a potential expansion is the first step in the process to build new nuclear assets, which could take a decade or longer. The predevelopment work — a prerequisite for the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission multistage licensing process for new large-scale nuclear stations — will help evaluate suitability of the site and will take "several years to complete," according to the province.
"Nuclear power has been the stable backbone of Ontario's clean electricity system for decades," Bruce Power President and CEO Mike Rencheck said. "We are starting the federal impact assessment process to look at new nuclear generation on our site now, to maximize the future optionality for clean electricity in the province."
Ontario's electricity demand is rising for the first time since 2005 and experts at the province's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) have recommended planning, siting and environmental assessment work for long-lead assets, including nuclear, to meet energy demand in the 2030s and later.
Ontario may need to more than double its electricity generation capacity from 42,000 MW today to 88,000 MW in 2050, including adding 17,800 MW of new nuclear generation, the IESO forecast in its December 2022 decarbonization report.
"We've got to look ahead," Smith said at a July 5 press conference at the site. "We've got to look to the future. We know we need to act today to ensure we can continue to power Ontario's growth through the 2030s and 2040s."
The Bruce Nuclear Generating Station is the largest operating nuclear generating station in the world, with a capacity of 6,550 MW, according to the province. Nuclear currently provides about 50% of Ontario's electricity supply.
Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPG), owner of many of the province's other generating assets, is working on a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) at its Darlington site. OPG aims to have the 300-MW Darlington New Nuclear Power Plant online within the decade, and executives have said the plant could expand to include more units. OPG is partnering with GE-Hitachi Nuclear Energy Inc. to deploy the SMR at Darlington and with the Tennessee Valley Authority to develop advanced nuclear technology. OPG began site work for the SMR in late 2022.
Ontario's IESO announced in August 2022 that it offered six new contracts to replace generation from the aging 3,100-MW Pickering nuclear plant, with four of the six for natural gas generation and one each for wind and energy storage. Of these, the IESO entered into the natural gas and wind contracts as of November 2022, according to its website.
The contracts are for five-year commitments from existing resources currently off-contract or scheduled to come off-contract, according to the IESO. Together the facilities contribute more than 700 MW of nameplate capacity to the system. The new contracts begin in May 2024 and May 2026, the same period when the six remaining units at the Pickering plant are expected to go offline. Pickering entered service in 1971 and is owned by OPG, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
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