Experts warn of swiftly shrinking window for US advanced nuclear competitiveness

If the US plans to take advantage of advanced nuclear technologies in the global clean energy transition, the window for remaining competitive at home and abroad is quickly closing, experts said during a May 11 panel at the Energy Bar Association conference in Washington, DC.

Advanced nuclear technologies such as small modular reactors (SMRs) are promising, and representatives on the panel from TerraPower LLC, Constellation Energy Generation LLC, the Nuclear Energy Institute and Guggenheim Partners agreed that the technologies represent a necessary component of the energy transition.

But advanced nuclear such as SMRs are still largely unproven at a commercial scale, as are promises of cheaper, less risky development and construction. Domestic and global supply chains — including for some fuels — are not yet fully in place, and the experts detailed a host of headwinds, including uncertain regulatory timelines and the lack of spent fuel storage. But they also believe that the challenges can and must be overcome.

"There is absolutely no way in the world that solar, wind and batteries and other intermittent tools in the toolkit get us to clean," Guggenheim Partners Senior Managing Director James Schaefer said.

"We as a nation need to change fast," Schaefer said of the climate for advanced nuclear in the US. "We're on the five-yard line but on the wrong side of the field."

Some companies are forging ahead. Westinghouse Electric Co. LLC on May 9 announced the submission of a preapplication regulatory engagement plan with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a new 300-MW SMR modeled on its existing 1,200-MW AP1000 design. The company said its plan gives the reactor a competitive advantage over other designs by leveraging existing supply chains and technologies already approved for the larger-scale reactor.

Other companies are encountering roadblocks. TerraPower said in December 2022 that its Natrium reactor would be delayed by at least two years because Russia is the only country that can supply sufficient amounts of the uranium the reactor requires. And while rival developer NuScale Power Corp. reached a major milestone in January when the NRC approved its design for a light-water reactor — the first SMR design certified by the federal regulator — NuScale faces challenges in boosting output of its flagship reactor, as well as rising supply and financing costs.

Still, advanced nuclear could fill a niche for utilities faced with the challenge of integrating more variable types of generation, such as wind and solar power.

"Nuclear already supplies 45% of all the carbon-free electricity. ... Trying to build on that is really essential if these goals are going to be met in a timely manner and in an affordable manner," said Jonathan Rund, deputy general counsel and assistant secretary at the Nuclear Energy Institute.

"Once you get to about 80% to 85% renewables, it gets very hard to manage that without something like nuclear, which can provide firm baseload power to supplement," TerraPower Senior Vice President and General Counsel Craighton Goeppele said.

Time is running out for the US to remain competitive globally as China and Russia promote their own nuclear technologies.

"We have about a five-year window to get up to speed and start competing with what's on the horizon," Schaefer said. "Our time is short."

To overcome advanced nuclear's challenges, panel experts said regulators must step in to help de-risk the industry financially and help ease regulatory hurdles as market momentum for the technologies accelerates.

"At the end of the day, Wall Street will crush the Chinese and Russians as long as we have proven technology that the market needs," Schaefer said.

The US Energy Department estimates that about 200 GW of new nuclear may be necessary to meet carbon reduction goals, including both SMRs and larger-scale advanced nuclear technologies.

Among major electric utilities in the US that include advanced nuclear in their generation planning, most feature it as part of a potential solution to reach broad goals for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and do not forecast those generation sources coming online until after 2030.

Meanwhile, nuclear advocates are urging the Energy Department to support commercial scaling up and deployment of advanced nuclear, including SMRs, while some worry that the technology may scale too late to be a major player in addressing climate change.

S&P Global Commodity Insights produces content for distribution on S&P Capital IQ Pro.