A new United Nations report said that even if countries deliver on all their pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the planet will warm by 2.5 degrees C by the end of the century — far above the upper limit under the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Dashing hopes for a "green transition" following the COVID-19 pandemic, global greenhouse gas emissions rose 1.2% between 2021 and 2022, Anne Olhoff, the emissions gap report's chief scientific editor, told a Nov. 20 press briefing to discuss the findings. In 2022, human-caused emissions reached a record level of 57.4 gigatons, Olhoff said.
A "transformation of global energy systems is essential, as energy accounts for 86% of global CO2 emissions and as existing coal oil and gas infrastructure, if fully exploited, far exceeds the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 degrees" of warming, Olhoff said.
Another United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) study released earlier in November found that the US and other large fossil fuel-producing nations are on track to extract more than double the level of coal, natural gas and oil needed to keep warming to 1.5 C, the target set by the Paris Agreement to avoid the worst impacts.
"Governments can't keep pledging to cut emissions under the Paris Agreement and then green-light huge fossil fuel projects," UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen told reporters. "This is throwing the global energy transition and humanity's future into question."
The 2023 Emissions Gap Report, the latest version released annually ahead of high-stakes climate negotiations that begin this year in the United Arab Emirates on Nov. 30, carries a title that reflects the authors' frustration: "Broken Record."
While in Dubai, the 195 parties to the Paris accord will undertake an official review of how the global community is responding to ever-rising global temperatures.
The warming projections in the emissions gap report have inched up since 2022, the UNEP said. To still make the 1.5 C target, nations would need to reduce carbon-equivalent emissions by 22 gigatons by 2030, the report said.
A third pre-COP assessment, released Nov. 14 by United Nations Climate Change, analyzed the specific pledges, or nationally determined contributions, countries have made to date under the Paris Agreement. That report forecasts that emissions will flatten after 2030 — but not decline as rapidly as needed to keep global temperatures in check.
Climate experts hope that the upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai will spur nations to set more stringent emissions reduction targets for the next decade. The new pledges for 2035 are due in 2025.
Scientists say 2023 will almost certainly go down as the hottest year on record to date after the world logged 86 days with temperatures more than 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, according to the UNEP. And the rising temperatures, disruptive storms and other impacts from climate change are expected to only increase in the years ahead.
As of Nov. 8, the US had logged 25 weather or climate disasters costing more than $1 billion in losses in 2023. The annual average for the past five years is 18 such events.
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