PJM Interconnection LLC unveiled a road map to help the regional transmission organization prepare for grid expansion prompted by electrification and the integration of substantial clean energy and storage capacity.
The "Grid of the Future" plan encompasses four key focus areas for PJM's Regional Transmission Expansion Plan: transmission build-out scenario studies, targeted reliability studies, process improvements and regulatory policy impacts.
PJM also anticipates the integration of 105,000 MW of onshore wind, offshore wind, solar and energy storage over the next 15 years. The grid operator projected that more than $3 billion in grid improvements will be needed to interconnect these resources.
"The grid of the future is happening now, and this paper details the road map that will help us plan the transmission system to enable the shift to renewable generation resources that are smaller, more dispersed, and more variable in output than the existing fleet," Suzanne Glatz, director of strategic initiatives and interregional planning, said May 10 at PJM's planning committee meeting.
"The reliable electric grid of today will have to become increasingly flexible and responsive to customer demands, and our processes streamlined to integrate the many new resources that are coming online," Glatz said.
The report builds on PJM's renewables integration and offshore wind studies.
PJM said four specific trends will drive grid expansion: generation development that encompasses growing renewable resources and deactivating conventional generation; evolving load characteristics, including electrifying transportation and heating; emerging technologies; and resilience.
"A key finding of this report is that electrification of light-duty vehicles is likely to be the main trend for which PJM must prepare," PJM wrote. "The impact is expected to be greater in the winter when the curve tends to be flatter, versus the summer when there is more opportunity to shift charging times. With appropriate policies to incentivize charging at off-peak hours, the bump in peak demand can be mitigated in part, even as overall energy consumption increases."
The grid operator said a heavy reliance on intermittent resources raises concerns about resilience. Such reliance was a contributing factor to a February 2021 storm's impact on the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas Inc., Southwest Power Pool and Midcontinent ISO.
While more than 100,000 MW of renewables and storage are expected to interconnect, 41,211 MW of primarily fossil-fueled generation retired in PJM from 2012 through 2021, according to the report. The nationwide trend of coal plant retirements is expected to accelerate through 2028.
"Generator deactivations alter power flows that can cause transmission line overloads and, given the loss of reactive power control capability from large-scale coal-fired and nuclear-powered generators, can undermine voltage control," PJM wrote in its grid study. "If PJM's actual future dispatch-stack fuel mix should evolve such that adequate levels of generator reliability attributes fall below the levels needed to maintain reliable grid operations, then additional operating procedures, market incentives and regulatory structures may be needed to maintain adequate levels."
Under its plan, PJM will analyze transmission expansion that leverages prior integration studies and potential impacts of electrification. PJM will also explore generation and transmission reliability attributes as well as the implementation of transmission expansion planning techniques, and it will evaluate regulatory policy impacts on new reliability criteria for extreme events, state electrification policies and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission action on regional transmission planning.
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