Carbon emissions from US power plants jumped 7% in 2021 – EIA

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported May 13 that carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector jumped 7% in 2021, reversing a drop during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

The Rhodium Group reached similar conclusions in its estimate of 2021 emissions released in January, but it estimated a slightly smaller increase. Both reports cited 2021's surge in coal-fired generation as the main reason for the rise in the sector's carbon pollution.

It was the first year since 2014 that U.S. emissions from coal-fired generation grew.

"Even just the recent uptick is bad news because emissions are cumulative," Charles Teplin, a principal and power industry expert with the Colorado-based think tank RMI, said in an interview "Both the war [in Ukraine] and other trends are complicating the near-term role for natural gas and coal. When natural gas prices rise, we'll have an uptick in coal."

Even though U.S. coal consumption is expected to decrease over the next decade, near-term trends matter if the U.S. is to stay aligned with the goal to keep global temperatures from climbing past 1.5 degrees Celsius, Teplin said.

For the energy sector as a whole, CO2 emissions rose 6% during 2021, the EIA said in its report. Even so, the 4.9 billion metric tons of CO2 the U.S. energy industry released was 5% less than in 2019, before economic activity plummeted, the EIA found.

U.S. energy emissions — which include carbon output from vehicles, aviation and other sources in addition to power plants — have dropped 19% since their peak in 2007, the agency's data shows.

CO2 pollution from the transportation sector climbed 11% in 2021 as pandemic restrictions eased and travel picked up. Emissions from jet fuel jumped 27%, motor gasoline by 9%, and distillate fuel oil consumed mainly as diesel by 6%.

Transportation is the largest U.S. source of climate-warming pollution, accounting for 27% in 2020, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

To what extent the trend in transportation pollution will continue this year might depend on gasoline prices. The U.S. Travel Association recently reported that 35% of Americans expect to travel more this summer than they did in 2021, while 63% said rising gas prices will affect their travel plans.

The EPA will not publish its greenhouse gas inventory of total U.S. emissions in 2021 until 2023, but the Rhodium Group estimated an increase of 6.2% for the year.

The U.S. is not alone in its struggle to tackle the root cause of climate change, but the return of a rise in emissions is further clouding President Joe Biden's pledge to cut U.S. emissions in half by 2030.

The ability to achieve Biden's pledges under the Paris Agreement on climate change was already in jeopardy, given that the president's signature $1.7 trillion Build Back Better bill is in limbo. Another challenge threatening to upend Biden's agenda is the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to rule on whether the EPA has the authority to regulate power plants.

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