March spot gas prices substantially higher YOY but showing signs of retreat

The average price of natural gas for day-ahead delivery increased year over year in all U.S. regions in March, with the Northeast experiencing the largest increase at 94.27%.

Average gas prices fell from the prior month for all regions except for the Gulf Coast, which rose slightly by 2.09%.

The Northeast recorded a 27.85% decrease month over month to an average of $4.873/MMBtu, which is still higher than all the other regions' averages. The West region's spot gas price index dropped 6.11% between February and March but had the lowest average among all regions at $4.299/MMBtu.

The Midcontinent saw a yearly gain of 83.24% to a spot price index of $4.423/MMBtu. Month over month, the region reported a decrease of 2.59%.

Gulf Coast gas hubs

Gas hubs in the Gulf Coast posted year-over-year gains ranging from 83.49% to as high as 96.55% in March.

All of the hubs recorded spot gas price indexes that ended up above the $4.5/MMBtu mark. The Henry Hub reported the highest index at $4.854/MMBtu, an 84.94% increase year over year.

Supply-side forecast

On the supply side, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly "Drilling Productivity Report" released March 14 that it expected all the shale gas-producing regions in the country except the Anadarko Basin to increase production in April over the prior month.

Gas production in Appalachia, the largest shale gas-producing region in the U.S., is anticipated to increase from 36.30 Bcf/d in March to 36.48 Bcf/d in April. The Haynesville region is forecast to grow production from about 14.43 Bcf/d in March to 14.60 Bcf/d in April. The EIA projected total U.S. shale gas production to climb from 91.73 Bcf/d in March to 92.33 Bcf/d in April.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.

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