59% of US REITs beat analyst FFO-per-share estimates in Q4'21

About 59% of U.S. equity real estate investment trusts reported funds from operations per share for the 2021 fourth quarter higher than their S&P Capital IQ consensus FFO-per-share estimates, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

The analysis included U.S. REITs that trade on the NYSE, the Nasdaq or the NYSE American with at least $200 million in market capitalization as of March 18 and with three or more consensus FFO-per-share estimates for the three months ended Dec. 31, 2021, or Jan. 31.

For comparison purposes, S&P Capital IQ typically uses FFO per share reported by the REIT that takes into account extraordinary items or other nonrecurring items. This is sometimes referred to as normalized or core FFO.

Self-storage REITs continue to surpass analyst estimates

All five self-storage REITs in the analysis topped their consensus FFO-per-share estimates for the quarter.

Within the self-storage sector, Life Storage Inc. reported FFO of $1.41 per share for the fourth quarter, 5.2% above its consensus estimate of $1.34 per share. National Storage Affiliates Trust and CubeSmart beat their consensus FFO-per-share estimates by 4.9% and 3.6%, respectively. The largest self-storage REIT, Public Storage, posted FFO per share 2.6% above its consensus estimate for the quarter.

Three of the four communications REITs likewise surpassed consensus FFO-per-share estimates, and the majority of retail REITs beat analyst expectations during the quarter.

Within the retail sector, mall REITs Macerich Co. and Simon Property Group Inc. both topped analyst FFO-per-share estimates by 10.4% and 7.3%, respectively, while outlet center-focused Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. reported FFO per share 9.8% higher than its consensus estimate. Nine of the 14 analyzed shopping center REITs also beat analyst FFO-per-share estimates.

Flurry of hotel REITs log largest FFO-per-share beats

The top five FFO-per-share estimate beats during the quarter all stem from the hotel sector. Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. reported adjusted FFO of 5 cents per share, 5.2% above its consensus estimate of 2 cents per share. The other hotel REITs in the top 5 included Host Hotels & Resorts Inc., Hersha Hospitality Trust, Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc. and Chatham Lodging Trust.

On the flip side, the two largest misses for the quarter also came from the hotel sector — Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. and Service Properties Trust — followed by office-focused Franklin Street Properties Corp.