Sports ad sales hot, but FOX exec says: 'We're at the mercy of the ratings gods'

➤ FOX Sports has sold out 80% of its inventory across MLB's postseason.

➤ Strength of schedule, early deals and continuing demand in the scatter market have resulted in robust NFL ad sales for FOX.

➤ Already considering Super Bowl LVII ad deals, the company has netted three significant sponsorship pacts for its coverage of the 2022 World Cup.

With a media industry advertising sales career spanning nearly four decades, Seth Winter, who had been serving as a chief adviser to NBC Sports Group, joined Fox Corp. in 2019. As executive vice president of sports sales, Winter oversees a portfolio that includes college football and basketball; NASCAR; soccer, notably the World Cup; MLB's regular season and postseason, highlighted by the World Series; and America's most popular sport, the NFL.

In a recent interview with S&P Global Market Intelligence, Winter discussed the current state of the white-hot sports market that has FOX Sports very well sold and nearing its NFL ad sales projections before the 2021-22 season even kicked off, and already eyeing sales opportunities for Super Bowl LVII, scheduled for Feb. 23, 2023, in Glendale, Ariz. An edited transcript of the conversation follows.

S&P Global Market Intelligence: By all accounts, sports are really hot amid a very robust advertising marketplace overall. What's the difference from last year?

Seth Winter: There was uncertainty around the games being played because of COVID, and some marketers didn't have real clarity about how the pandemic would affect their businesses. The NFL did a great job of making sure all its games were played last season.

Last year's upfront market was delayed by the pandemic. It started to move at a more typical time, after Memorial Day, and pace this year. Sports moved much earlier, too.

FOX Sports usually conducts a lot of upfront business alongside FOX Entertainment?

One of the reasons I came out of retirement is that Fox is such a nimble company. At others, you sometimes have to get sign-off from multiple divisions before you can do a deal. [Fox Networks Group President] Marianne [Gambelli] relies on our expertise. FOX Sports functions as a discreet vertical, but also works with FOX Entertainment. We're ready to do business when clients are.

Where is the sports market right now?

We received scatter interest in the NFL, college football and MLB before Labor Day. That usually doesn't happen until September is over or into early October. That underscores the strength of the market and our position in the fourth quarter.

FOX Sports scored its best-ever regular-season ad sales performance with MLB's "Field of Dreams" game last month. Now, the postseason is just a few weeks away.

Yes, it shows the interest in baseball and special events like that [the Aug. 12 meeting between the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox at Field of Dreams in Dyersville, Iowa, a site popularized by the film of the same name, averaged 5.9 million viewers on FOX (US) and FOX Deportes (US), the most for an MLB regular season game in 16 years]. It was a catalyst for other MLB sales. We're real lucky to have a second game next season.

You have the American League playoffs this year before the World Series. Where do you stand with postseason sales?

There is a big-market team with the White Sox. Tampa just keeps on coming. Houston is the team everybody loves to hate. In the Wild Card chase, there are the old rivals, the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.

It depends on the round, but we're about 80% sold across the board. We could achieve our revenue forecasts before the first pitch of the postseason.

What categories are driving FOX's NFL ad sales?

Insurance. Cars. Technology. Retail. The FAANG [Facebook Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Netflix Inc. and Alphabet Inc.'s Google LLC] companies.

The market received a nice jolt from the NFL now permitting in-game ads from seven sportsbooks?

It's a strong start for a new category. We're also seeing cryptocurrency business in the NFL, college football and MLB.

To advertise in the NFL playoffs and NFC Championship, do marketers need to buy a considerable regular-season schedule?

Our focus right now is getting the right pricing in place for the [NFC Championship game]. Next to the Super Bowl, it's the second-biggest audience of the year.

NBC Sports is nearing a sellout for Super Bowl LVI in February. You're looking at opportunities for Super Bowl LVII in 2023?

There is already a lot of interest from marketers amid this robust marketplace. We're active with the 2022 World Cup and have already signed three significant sponsors. It's a massive opportunity; there just aren't that many tentpole events.

With the competition taking place in November and December because it's so hot in Qatar, more eyes could be focused on World Cup in the fall than during its usual summer run. But could soccer interrupt American football to some extent?

No. Thankfully, we have more than enough real estate to program in nonconflicting manners. As schedules are finalized, there should be some good lead-ins.

Back to this year. With the NFL on Thursdays and Sundays, college football on Saturdays and baseball's postseason, you control the fourth-quarter market with, what, about 50% of the gross ratings points this fall?

[Chief marketing officers] can make or break their careers depending on how their companies' products perform in the fourth quarter. Our sports roster helps move their sales needles effectively in the period.

After last year's lockdown from COVID-19, fans are back in the stands, and that brings more excitement to the telecasts. And higher ratings?

I would like to think so. Our college football got off to a strong start with Ohio State and Minnesota [the Sept. 2 matchup averaged 6.3 million viewers, the most ever for a Week 1 game on FOX].

Since we have the NFL's best package, the NFC, we're glad that Aaron Rodgers has returned to Green Bay and that Tom Brady is back for another year in Tampa. We expect "America's Game of the Week" will be the most-watched show on television for a 13th straight season.

I think all of the networks are happy with their NFL schedules. But we're all at the mercy of the ratings gods in terms of what we can and cannot do.