Texas' embattled grid operator on March 25 said it will have sufficient power generation to meet anticipated record demand in the summer.
Officials with the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas Inc., which manages the flow of electricity to more than 26 million customers, said that its reserve margin is expected to reach 15.5% by summer, up from 12.6% in 2020. ERCOT's preliminary seasonal assessment for the summer found that there will be 86,908 MW of total resource capacity to meet peak demand of 77,144 MW between June and September, a record.
"ERCOT will benefit from growth in generation resources, but forecasts are also showing another record-breaking summer on the demand side," Woody Rickerson, ERCOT's vice president of grid planning and operations, said in an announcement. "Overall, power reserves are in a better position heading into this summer compared to the past few years."
ERCOT has been focusing on increasing its reserve margin to prevent energy emergencies during Texas' sweltering summer. In 2019, when ERCOT's reserve margin was 8.6%, Texas had to issue energy emergency alerts as generators dropped off the grid.
Trust in ERCOT's forecasts, however, has dwindled following the Texas arctic blast, which nearly caused the power grid to collapse in February, leaving millions of customers in the cold and dark for days. The disaster came despite ERCOT's November forecast that it had sufficient reserves to meet winter peak demand, which it predicted would be roughly 57,600 MW. But during the storm, more than 52,000 MW of generation went out of service. Without load shedding, the peak demand on ERCOT's system would have been more than 74,800 MW during the storm, ERCOT officials later acknowledged.
Power plants in Texas are built to withstand hot summer seasons, officials pointed out.
"Based on the information that we have at this time, the risk for controlled outages is low," said Leslie Sopko, spokeswoman for ERCOT. "There's always a risk, but that risk for this summer is low."
"We all have a lot of experience with extreme heat," said Pete Warnken, ERCOT's manager of resource adequacy.
In response to the February storm, ERCOT has changed how it forecasts supply and demand. It added a new section in its preliminary summer report that included "more extreme scenarios that could lead to energy emergencies and the possibility of controlled outages." That includes a severe heat wave blanketing the entire state, and simultaneous low wind and solar output.
ERCOT said it anticipates there will be 939 MW of battery storage available in the summer, which includes 717 MW of planned additions. "While some of these battery storage resources may help meet customer demand, they are not currently included in ERCOT's capacity contributions for summer," ERCOT said in an announcement.
Warnken said that current battery storage does not provide capacity during peak load, but officials are studying the impact batteries could have during scarcity conditions.
ERCOT's final summer resource assessment will be released in May.
