Renewables will be the largest contributor to electricity generation growth through 2050, but some regions will still mainly use coal-fired resources, according to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Assuming current laws and regulations continue, renewable resources, particularly solar and wind , will be the largest contributor to electricity generation growth over the next several decades, the EIA projected in its "International Energy Outlook 2021" released Oct. 6. But energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase through 2050 because of population and economic growth. While renewables are expected to be the primary source for new generation, natural gas, batteries and coal will be used to help meet load and support grid reliability, and coal is expected to remain in high use.
Of the world's existing coal-fired generating capacity, 99% consists of boilers and steam turbine units that are as much as 30% less efficient than natural gas-fired combined-cycle units using the latest technology, according to the EIA. Because natural gas-fired generators are more efficient at converting fuel to energy, they are often a lower-cost option even when the fuel price is higher than coal. But the absence of regional carbon policies or regulations along with rising gas prices expected after 2030, especially in areas that rely on liquefied natural gas such as Asia, are likely to make coal the most economic generation fuel to pair with wind and solar, the EIA wrote in its report.
By 2050, global energy use is expected to increase nearly 50%, driven by growing energy consumption in developing Asian economies, according to the EIA.
Increases in coal-fired generation in Asian countries that are not members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, are expected to account for more than 75% of the EIA's projected increase in global coal-fired generation from 2030 to 2050. Energy in use is projected to return to pre-pandemic levels quickly in those areas, the EIA reported.
For other non-OECD Asia countries, the EIA projected that renewable energy sources will account for about 60% of the generation increase over the same period, primarily from wind and solar. Coal-fired generation will account for nearly all of the remaining growth, according to the EIA.
The EIA projected that by 2030, coal-fired generation could begin to displace some natural gas-fired generation in other non-OECD Asia countries because of "abundant coal resources that can be competitively mined, natural gas prices that are projected to increase after 2030 and a lack of carbon policies or regulations in the region."
Coal-fired generation will steadily increase in other non-OECD Asia countries through 2050, and coal's share of generation in the region is projected to increase from 33% in 2020 to nearly 50% in 2050, according to the EIA.
