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Summary
Base metals prices rallied in the second quarter fueled by expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, stimulus measures in China and speculative interest in the copper market. Driven by a short squeeze on the COMEX futures exchange, the LME 3M copper price hit a record high of $10,930/t on May 20. Prices pulled back on a stronger dollar and looser fundamentals, including mounting inventories and lackluster demand in China, countered by tightening supply of copper and zinc concentrates. Entering the September quarter, a risk-off tone helped the LBMA gold price surpass a record $2,480/oz on July 17 spurred by dramatic US election-related events, renewed hopes for Fed rate cuts, and continuing international geopolitical upheaval. Looking ahead into the second half of the year, industrial metals prices are expected to come under pressure from trade tensions, uncertainties around China’s economic growth and the upcoming US elections. The combination of geopolitical tensions and the prospect of rate cuts, however, should keep gold prices strong.
Strong metal prices boosted exploration metrics in the early half of the June quarter, with the April and May pipeline activity indexes rebounding from a multiyear low recorded in March. With some metals prices stalling mid-quarter, the sector saw a pullback in financing levels in June, while drilling activity also slowed resulting in a June low not seen since 2020.
Join our analysts as we provide a recap of the June 2024 quarter, provide our near-term outlook and discuss key trends and topics:
- Commodity price trends, drivers, and estimates
- Mergers and acquisitions, mining financing
- Exploration and development metrics
Speakers
S&P Global Energy
Marc Rayos
S&P Global Energy
Research Associate, Metals and Mining Research
Marc is an analyst for the Metals & Mining Research group since 2019.
Marc is an analyst for the Metals & Mining Research group since 2019. Together with the Mine Economics team, he builds and maintains financial models for mine operations across the world. Covering several commodities including gold, iron ore, and metallurgical coal, he writes articles on regional industry trends on production and costs.
Prior to joining the company, he spent three years working in a coal mine in the Philippines. Marc supported various technical and auxiliary services and projects within the mining operations group. He is a licensed engineer and holds a BSc in Mining Engineering from the University of the Philippines.
Tamara Thorne
S&P Global Energy
Senior Analyst, Metals and Mining
Tamara Thorne is a Senior Analyst in the Metals and Mining Research Team at S&P Global Energy, based in London.
Tamara Thorne is a Senior Analyst in the Metals and Mining Research Team at S&P Global Energy, based in London. Tamara has been covering the metals markets since 2016 since she joined the GFMS precious metals research team at Thomson Reuters, focusing on fabrication and investment demand in Europe and the UK. In 2018, Tamara joined INTL FCStone, where her primary focus was precious metals risk compliance and analysis of mining projects in South America, Middle East and Central Asia. She re-joined Refinitiv in 2019 to continue contributing to the precious metals research and analysis, but her main focus was the expansion and development of the team’s iron ore and steel market coverage. Tamara holds a MSc in Mining Engineering, from the Camborne School of Mines and a MA in International Relations, both from the University of Exeter, UK.
Moderator
S&P Global Energy
Mark Ferguson
S&P Global Energy
Director, Metals & Mining Research
Mark Ferguson is the Research Director for the Metals & Mining Research group at S&P Global Energy. Having worked for previous iterations of the division since 2004, he has extensive experience in producing exploration and supply-side studies and topical research for the mining sector.
Increasingly focused on energy transition-related needs pertinent to the metals & mining sector, the Research team tracks the industry’s upstream efforts while assessing demand and price expectations for key industrial and battery metals.
Mark holds a Bachelor of Science in Geology/Geography from Saint Mary’s University, and an MSc in Earth Sciences from Dalhousie University.
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