-
Summary
US bank earnings have continued to grow, buoyed by margin expansion and benign credit quality, save for a few, notable losses that emerged in the third quarter. Additional margin expansion should continue heading into 2026 as lower-yielding assets purchased or originated when rates were low, mature and are reinvested at higher yields, while additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve allow for greater relief in funding costs. Credit quality is expected to sour and serve as a greater headwind to earnings but should not slip as much as some fear.
That disconnect is evident in current bank stock valuations. Despite the banking industry's earnings growing more than 21% year over year, bank stocks are trading at their cheapest levels relative to the broader market in a decade. The S&P 500 Index has jumped more than 16% in 2025, while the regional bank index has risen just 3.5% this year. Over the last three years, S&P 500 Index has increased more than 70%, while the regional bank index has only climbed 6%.
During this discussion, FIG Research Director Nathan Stovall will review his proprietary projections for commercial bank performance and discuss with Endeavor Capital Partner Jonah Marcus catalysts for bank stocks and how they might more closely align with bank overall fundamental performance in 2026.
Speakers
Endeavour Capital Advisors
Jonah Marcus - CFA
Partner and Portfolio Manager
Jonah Marcus, CFA, Portfolio Manager Jonah joined Endeavour Capital Advisors, Inc. in 2008. Previously, Jonah was a Research Analyst at Miller & Jacobs Capital, LLC from 2003 to 2008, where he worked on the firm’s financial services long/short equity fund. Jonah received a double BA in Economics and History from the University of Pennsylvania, cum laude, and is a CFA charterholder. He serves on the Board of Directors of New York City-based Grasshopper Bancorp, Inc., an innovative digital commercial bank. Jonah is a frequent speaker and presenter at industry events, including the S&P Global and Mid-Sized Bank Coalition (MBCA) conferences.
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Nathan Stovall
Director, FIG Research
Nathan Stovall, with 17 years' experience covering the banking sector, is a principal analyst for the FIG Research offering of S&P Global Market Intelligence. His primary responsibilities include covering and analyzing financial institutions, with a focus on the banking industry.
He is the author of the banking blog, Street Talk, and host of the podcast by the same name. His in-depth analysis of the banking industry, including a focus on community banks, can be found on SPGMI's Research & Analysis feature, which includes historical and forward-looking performance figures.
During his tenure, he has regularly covered and participated on the conference circuit, moderating panels and webinars focused on major issues facing banks. He has spoken as industry events as well, offering updates on bank fundamentals, market conditions and forecasts for what lies ahead. He has been quoted in a number of trade publications and the national press, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Financial Times and has appeared on Fox Business News and NPR's Planet Money.
Nathan holds a Bachelor of Arts degrees from Washington & Lee University, where he majored in business journalism
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Maureen McKenna
Head of Partnerships and Business Development
Maureen McKenna is the Solutions Lead for U.S. Commercial Banks at S&P Global Market Intelligence. In this role, she produces segment specific thought leadership and identifies opportunities for Commercial Banks to partner with S&P Global to leverage our full suite of products. Maureen started her career with SNL Financial in 2008 and has been producing training seminars and executive level conferences for professionals at US Commercial banks for the last 14 years. Maureen gradated from the University of Virginia with dual degrees in Economics and Psychology.
Questions?
Please contact us if you need more information or have trouble accessing the webinar.