Recalibration of the Global Energy Transition: Impact of Iran War, Ongoing Datacenter Energy Needs

With the release in December 2025 of our 2026 Horizons Top Trends for energy expansion and sustainability, we shared expectations that profound geopolitical shifts and strategic repositioning across complex, interconnected energy and sustainability ecosystems would shape energy markets in 2026. We also highlighted the growing urgency for speed to power – driven by soaring energy demand from datacenters. These expectations are playing out in force in unforeseen ways – interacting with, reinforcing, and recalibrating those trends.

The implications for the pace and direction of the energy transition vary by country, technology, commodity, and region.  We assess these dynamics through our Horizons Clean Energy Pulse – which tracks over 65 indicators of global clean energy momentum and serves as a data-driven lens to interpret often divergent narratives about the state of the energy transition. 

Our outlooks across clean energy technologies and mechanisms are being recalibrated – with short-term flexibility shaped by spare capacity and inventory.  We know that spare capacity exists in China, while solar and storage outlooks continue to strengthen.  Early signals also point to greater enthusiasm for electrified transport – even as EV exports from China continue to grow. Biofuels provide a buffer in some regions but remain constrained by capacity in the longer term. Meanwhile, scrutiny is rising on supply chains resilience for low-carbon commodities and cleantech. 

Policymakers must navigate immediate concerns about affordability and the need to drive longer-term incentives to reinforce energy security and reliability.  Yet, the likelihood of effective and cooperative governance is increasingly impacted by more geopolitical fracturing.   

Please join us for an hour-long discussion exploring these indicators, their real-time dynamics and potential implications for transformation of the energy sector, followed by Q&A.