articles Corporate /en/research-insights/articles/the-sp-corelogic-case-shiller-national-home-price-nsa-index-sets-fourth-consecutive-all-time-high content
BY CONTINUING TO USE THIS SITE, YOU ARE AGREEING TO OUR USE OF COOKIES. REVIEW OUR
PRIVACY & COOKIE NOTICE
Log in to other products

Login to Market Intelligence Platform

 /


Looking for more?

Request a Demo

You're one step closer to unlocking our suite of comprehensive and robust tools.

Fill out the form so we can connect you to the right person.

  • First Name*
  • Last Name*
  • Business Email *
  • Phone *
  • Company Name *
  • City *

* Required

In This List

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index Sets Fourth Consecutive All-Time High

S&P Global

Best Practices in Corporate Climate Disclosure

S&P Global Ratings

'BBB' Downgrade Risks in EMEA Nonfinancial Corporates

S&P Global Ratings

China Property Watch The Slowdown Won't Stifle Developers

S&P Dow Jones Indices

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Gains Lowest Since 2015


The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index Sets Fourth Consecutive All-Time High

On March 25, 2017, S&P Dow Jones Indices released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released for February 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the previous 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog.

Year-Over-Year

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in February, up from 5.6% last month and setting a 32-month high. The 10-City Composite posted a 5.2% annual increase, up from 5.0% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.9%, up from 5.7% in January.

Seattle, Portland, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In February, Seattle led the way with a 12.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 9.7%. Dallas replaced Denver in the top three with an 8.8% increase. Fifteen cities reported greater price increases in the year ending February 2017 versus the year ending January 2017.

The below charts compare year-over-year returns for Seattle and Portland with different ranges of housing prices (tiers). Tier level analysis from 2011 to present shows both Seattle and Portland’s year-over-year housing price returns in the high tier are the most stable, while housing prices in the low tier are the most volatile.

Chart+-+S%26P+Case-Shiller+Seattle%2C+WA+Indices+%28Returns%29
Chart+-+S%26P+Case-Shiller+Portland%2C+OR+Indices+%28Returns%29

Month-Over-Month

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in February. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.3% increase, and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.4% increase in February. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-over-month increase. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.6% increase and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.7% month-over-month increase. Sixteen of 20 cities reported increases in February before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, 19 cities saw prices rise.

Analysis

“Housing and home prices continue to advance,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index and the two composite indices accelerated since the national index set a new high four months ago. Other housing indicators are also advancing, but not accelerating the way prices are. As per National Association of Realtors sales of existing homes were up 5.6% in the year ended in March. There are still relatively few existing homes listed for sale and the small 3.8 month supply is supporting the recent price increases. Housing affordability has declined since 2012 as the pressure of higher prices has been a larger factor than stable to lower mortgage rates.

“Housing’s strength and home building are important contributors to the economic recovery. Housing starts bottomed in March 2009 and, with a few bumps, have advanced over the last eight years. New home construction is now close to a normal pace of about 1.2 million units annually, of which around 800,000 are single family homes. Most housing rebounds following a recession only last for a year or so. The notable exception was the boom that set the stage for the bubble. Housing starts bottomed in 1991, drove through the 2000-2001 recession, and peaked in 2005 after a 14-year run.”

Supporting Data

The chart below depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite, and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 5.8% annual gain in February 2017. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increases of 5.2% and 5.9%, respectively.

Chart+-+S%26P+CoreLogic+Case-Shiller+Indices

The following chart shows the index levels for the U.S. National, 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of February 2017, average home prices for the MSAs within the 10-City and 20-City Composites are back to their winter 2007 levels.

Chart+-+S%26P+CoreLogic+Case-Shiller+Indices

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

  2006 Peak 2012 Trough Current
Index Level Date Level Date From Peak (%) Level From Trough (%) From Peak (%)
National 184.62 Jul-06 134.01 Feb-12 -27.4% 185.56 38.5% 0.5%
20-City 206.52 Jul-06 134.07 Mar-12 -35.1% 193.49 44.3% -6.3%
10-City 226.29 Jun-06 146.45 Mar-12 -35.3% 207.25 41.5% -8.4%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for February 2017. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

Metropolitan Area February 2017 Level February/January Change (%) January '17/December '16 Change (%) 1-Year Change (%)
Atlanta 133.49 0.4% -0.3% 5.6%
Boston 195.65 0.4% 0.4% 7.6%
Charlotte 143.98 0.5% 0.3% 6.1%
Chicago 136.60 0.2% 0.1% 6.2%
Cleveland 112.78 -0.3% -0.2% 4.5%
Dallas 171.31 1.1% 0.3% 8.8%
Denver 191.45 0.4% 0.5% 8.5%
Detroit 109.60 0.3% -0.5% 6.2%
Las Vegas 155.30 0.4% 0.6% 6.3%
Los Angeles 255.19 0.4% 0.4% 5.1%
Miami 220.62 0.0% 0.2% 6.7%
Minneapolis 154.08 0.1% -0.7% 5.9%
New York 184.87 0.0% 0.3% 3.2%
Phoenix 165.38 0.4% 0.1% 5.3%
Portland 210.93 0.8% -0.3% 9.7%
San Diego 233.31 1.0% 0.8% 6.5%
San Francisco 232.88 1.2% -0.4% 6.4%
Seattle 211.49 1.9% 0.6% 12.2%
Tampa 190.20 -0.5% 0.0% 6.9%
Washington 216.69 0.2% 0.1% 4.1%
Composite-10 207.25 0.3% 0.2% 5.2%
Composite-20 193.49 0.4% 0.2% 5.9%
U.S. National 185.56 0.2% 0.1% 5.8%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through February 2017

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

Metropolitan Area Feb/Jan Change (%) Jan '17/Dec '16 Change
Atlanta 0.4% 0.8% -0.3% 0.5%
Boston 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.9%
Charlotte 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6%
Chicago 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 1.2%
Cleveland -0.3% 0.9% -0.2% 0.3%
Dallas 1.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.8%
Denver 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 1.1%
Detroit 0.3% 0.8% -0.5% 0.7%
Las Vegas 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.9%
Los Angeles 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 1.0%
Miami 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4%
Minneapolis 0.1% 0.9% -0.7% 0.4%
New York 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
Phoenix 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6%
Portland 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 1.0%
San Diego 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0%
San Francisco 1.2% 1.0% -0.4% 0.8%
Seattle 1.9% 1.9% 0.6% 1.7%
Tampa -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Washington 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8%
Composite-10 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9%
Composite-20 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9%
U.S. National 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through February 2017