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New York markets pre-open: Stocks fall on hawkish Fed; euro up on ECB

SNL Image

? Stocks fall globally on a hawkish Fed.

? Dollar fades as euro strengthens ahead of ECB decision.

? U.K. retail sales grow more than expected in May.

? S&P 500 set to open lower.

Global stock markets fell in the wake of hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding future rate hikes. The dollar lost against major currencies as the euro gained ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision. Brent crude slipped, and futures pointed to the S&P 500 opening little changed.

The Euro Stoxx was down 0.36% and the FTSE 100 dropped 0.47% before 7 a.m. ET. In Asia, Shanghai stocks had slipped 0.18% after China's central bank failed to follow the Fed in hiking rates for the first time. Japan's Nikkei 225 retreated by almost 1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell by 0.80%.

The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate in a widely expected move June 13 and signaled that more officials were in favor of four rate hikes in 2018, as opposed to three hikes previously.

By the end of 2019, the Fed expects to have raised rates 12 times since the end of 2015, said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. However, with little clarity on when the ECB, the Bank of Japan or Bank of England will raise rates next, "continued widening of interest rate differentials could act as a significant global headwind in the coming months," Hewson said.

Ten-year Treasury yields fell by 1 basis point to 2.953% as of 7:05 a.m. ET.

The Bloomberg dollar spot index dipped 0.23% to $93.3320 before 7 a.m. ET as the currency retraced initial gains following the Fed's announcement, suggesting that the dollar may have neared an exhaustion point, according to TD Securities. "The ball is in now in the ECB's court."

The euro gained 0.31% against the dollar as of 7:05 a.m. ET as investors awaited any news on the ECB's strategy for exiting its asset purchase program. Markets widely expect quantitative easing to end in 2018.

"We expect a confident yet cautious tone from the ECB, highlighting both the upside and downside risks to inflation and downplaying the risks stemming from Italy and U.S. trade policy," Société Générale said in a note to investors. "We still see the July meeting as the right place for the ECB to spell out its plans expecting purchases of €15 billion/month in the last 3 months of the year."

Yields on 10-year German Bunds added nearly 2 basis points to 0.501% as ECB President Mario Draghi was expected to remain upbeat that growth is above its potential despite expected forecast downgrades, TD Securities noted.

"Today's ECB decision could be a difficult one, as Draghi tries to prepare the markets for the end of QE at the same time as having to downgrade the growth forecasts for the first time in two years," TD Securities said. "At the end of the day, we look for both [euro/dollar] and Bund yields to be a bit higher."

The sterling appreciated 0.43% against the dollar, after U.K. retail sales jumped more than expected in May on the back of good weather and royal wedding festivities, underpinning the chances of a Bank of England rate hike later in the year.

Meanwhile, Washington looks set to unveil a list of $50 billion worth of Chinese products containing industrially significant technology, on which it intends to impose 25% tariffs by June 15, with the levies taking effect "shortly thereafter."

Brent crude oil slipped 0.27% to $76.53 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. Gold gained 0.54% to $1,308.30 per ounce.

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The day ahead:

8:30 a.m. ET — U.S. jobless claims (Econoday consensus: 225,000)

8:30 a.m. ET — U.S. retail sales (Econoday consensus: 0.4% monthly)

8:30 a.m. ET — U.S. import and export prices (Econoday consensus: 0.5% and 0.3% monthly)

10 a.m. ET — U.S. business inventories (Econoday consensus: 0.3% monthly)

10:30 a.m. ET — U.S. EIA natural gas report

4:30 p.m. ET — U.S. Fed balance sheet and money supply

9:30 p.m. ET — China house price index