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The Trump trade on Mexico's peso

Whilethe U.S. presidential election is still more than a month away, Mexico has alreadybeen feeling its impact.

In asomewhat surprising move, Mexico's central bank on Sept. 29 decided to its benchmark interest rateby 50 basis points to 4.75%. In doing so, Bancode México pointed to typical inflationary concerns and slower growthin developed economies.

But italso highlighted a marked depreciation in its currency, the peso, amid increasingnervousness surrounding the U.S. elections in November. In fact, the central bankadmitted that the results of the election "could have particularly importantconsequences for Mexico."

Frontand center to those concerns is Donald Trump, the U.S. Republican Party presidentialnominee. The businessman-turned-politician has made Mexico and Mexicans a majorpart of his platform, promising to withdraw from a free trade deal with the countryand block remittances between the U.S. and Mexico in order to force the southernneighbor to pay for a border wall.

As aresult, the market has effectively paired the probability of a Trump victory tothe value of Mexico's peso, as several news organizations have pointed out. In recentweeks, national polls showed that Trump has narrowed the gap with his rival, Democraticnominee Hillary Clinton; over that same time, the Mexican peso has steadily weakenedto an all-time low.

The pesopared some of those losses following the first U.S. presidential debate — soaringby more than 2% in a move many interpretedto be a sign that Trump lost the debate — but is still trading near the psychologicalbarrier of 20 pesos to US$1.

In aneffort to demonstrate the correlation between Trump and the peso, S&P GlobalMarket Intelligence has overlaid the currency's recent movement with the presidentialcandidate's polling numbers.

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Click here to view country level information for Mexico.

Click here to view exchange rates for different currencies at any given point in time.

 

 

 

 

As of Sept. 29, US$1 was equivalentto 19.41 Mexican pesos.