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AM Power Report: Prices could dither amid varied fundamentals

Next-daypower values couldbe mixed Tuesday, July 12, as diverging demand forecasts for midweek collidewith the recent volatility in trading activity at the natural gas futures arena.

in the priorsession, front-month August natural gas futures were up overnightahead of the market open Tuesday, trading near $2.746/MMBtu, up 4.4 cents onshort-covering inspired by warmer weather outlooks that are seen driving updemand.

Next-daynatural gas markets could be aimed in mixed directions, with many hubs favoringgains though, in step with any sustained advance in futures Tuesday and alsodrawing support from the more bullish weather forecasts.

Onthe demand side, outlooks suggest varied load at midweek.

Inthe Northeast, stronger demand is in store, as load in New England is expectedto peak at 19,390 MW on Tuesday and 21,880 MW on Wednesday, while demand in NewYork is seen cresting at 25,378 MW on Tuesday and 27,301 MW in the middle ofthe workweek. In the Mid-Atlantic, weaker load is on deck, as PJM Westernregion load is called to hit a high at 72,662 MW on Tuesday and 70,633 MW onWednesday, while demand in PJM Mid-Atlantic is projected to top out at 46,307MW on Tuesday and 45,074 MW on Wednesday.

Inthe Midwest, forecasts indicate softer demand, as load in PJM AEP region iscalled to reach 20,943 MW on Tuesday and 20,537 MW on Wednesday, while PJMComEd demand is expected to see highs at 19,655 MW on Tuesday and 18,578 MW atmidweek.

Inthe South, ERCOT load is seen touching a high near 66,077 MW on Tuesday and66,188 MW in the middle of the business week, joining the uptick.

Inthe West, demand in CAISO should near 35,930 MW on Tuesday and 39,070 MW onWednesday.

Inforward activity, power parcels for August delivery had a weak showing in muchof the country coming off the weekend, in tandem with front-month natural gasfutures that unraveled on the session to ultimately signal a reduction infueling costs.

Inthe East, transactions for prompt-month power fell by roughly $3 at NEPOOL-Massand slid by almost 90 cents at PJM West to indexes in the low $40s, as powerdeals for delivery further out to September ran through the low $30s in NewEngland and through the high $30s at PJM West.

Inthe Midwest, price action for August power deflated by near $2 at MISO Indianaand shed about 70 cents to 80 cents at PJM AD and PJM Northern Illinois toaverage in the high $30s across the three hubs. Looking ahead, power values forSeptember were spotted in the low $30s overall.

Inthe South, losses of about $7 at the ERCOT markets drove pricing for Augustpower to indexes spread in the low to high $70s, as regional price activity forSeptember power spanned the low $30s.

Inthe West, month-ahead power deals at both North Path-15 and South Path-15 inCalifornia advanced by near 20 cents against the wider retreat to indexes inthe high $30s, as similar trades deflated by around 40 cents to average in the high$20s at Mid-Columbia and shed near $2 to average in the low $30s at Palo Verde.Power transactions for September were carried out also in the high $30s inCalifornia and in the mid- to high $20s elsewhere in the region.

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Marketprices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication andare subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas indexprices, as well as forwards and futures, visitour Commodities Pages.