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China Mobile Projections, 2020-2030


COVID-19 brought China's mobile market to a standstill, but a new telco player with 700 MHz 5G spectrum holdings might save the industry from further stagnation.

Visualize the current state of the mobile industry in mainland China and where it is headed in the next 10 years through select charts published by Kagan, a media market research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

 Companies covered include China Mobile Ltd., China Telecom Corp. Ltd., China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd., China Broadcasting Network Co., Ltd. and China Tower Corp. Ltd.

Key takeaways

  • The coronavirus crisis brought China's mobile market to a standstill, but the new telco player China Broadcasting Network might stimulate competition and save the industry from further stagnation, especially with its much-coveted 700 MHz 5G spectrum holdings. 
  • As of March 2020, mainland China had at least 48.3 million 5G subscriptions spread across 57 cities.
  • Our model projects flat growth for mobile subscriptions in 2020 due to earlier losses from the coronavirus crisis before increasing by 2.46% CAGR through 2030. 4G to 5G migration and increased mobile adoption in rural areas will underpin this growth. 
  • Cheap 5G plans and pressure from the government to reduce prices will put negative pressure on service revenue and ARPU in 2020. We project a CAGR of 3.75% and 1.25% respectively for the two metrics from 2020 to 2030.

READ MORE: Current clients, click here to download the PowerPoint presentation and the supplemental Excel file (requires subscription).

Wireless Investor is a regular feature from Kagan, a media market research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence's TMT offering, providing exclusive research and commentary.

Ciaralou Palicpic contributed to this article.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

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