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Asia-Pacific advertising expenditure will drop 8.5% year over year in 2020 due to the coronavirus, with linear spend not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels, data from MAGNA Global shows.

Advertising spend in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to fall to US$162. 61 billion in 2020, from US$177.70 billion in 2019 due to the global economic downturn triggered by the pandemic, Magna Global's June 2020 global advertising forecast shows. In December, before the coronavirus spread, Magna Global estimated advertising expenditure in Asia-Pacific would rise 6% year over year in 2020 to US$194.45 billion.

Spend on linear, or nondigital, formats — including TV, print, radio and outdoor advertisements — is projected to fall 16.5% year over year to US$75.68 billion in 2020. Long-term, print is expected to see the greatest decline, at a negative 9.10% CAGR to 2024. TV follows at a negative 3.75% CAGR through 2024.

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Cinema ads spend will drop 39.3% year over year to US$807 million, due to widespread theater closures amid the pandemic. TV ad spend will drop 12.5% year over year to US$48.54 billion in 2020, as a number of sports events, including the Tokyo Olympics, were canceled.

Digital advertising is projected to fall 0.2% year over year to US$86.93 billion in 2020, according to Magna Global. It will recover in 2021 to grow 12.5%, with a CAGR 2019-2024 of 7.3%.

The medium — which includes desktop, mobile, social media and online video ads — will account for about 63% of Asia-Pacific advertising spend in 2024, according to the data.

Social media ad spend on mobile devices will grow the most at 15.4% between 2019 and 2024, with mobile video platform spend in second place with a CAGR of 14.7% for the period.

The impact of COVID-19 on the advertising industry will vary considerably across Asia-Pacific's major markets. Japan and China spend will drop 14.2% and 6.0% year over year in 2020, respectively. India's ad spend will grow 2.3% year over year in 2020. India's ad spend grew by double-digit or high single-digit percentages for the past five years, so modest growth is still a significant decline, said Natalie Colakides, senior analyst of media equity research at Kagan, a media research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Ad spend generally mirrors real GDP, Colakides said. China's real GDP is projected to rise 1% in 2020 and 8.2% in 2021, according to International Monetary Fund data. Japan's GDP will drop 5.8% in 2020 and rise 2.4% in 2021, according to the IMF. India's real GDP will fall 4.5% in 2020 and rise 6% in 2021.