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Allstate, Progressive project significant losses from historic Hurricane Ida

Hurricane Ida, which caused wind and storm surge damage in Louisiana and flooding on the U.S. East Coast, is expected to result in tens of billions of dollars of insured losses.

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Based on preliminary loss estimates, The Allstate Corp. could see the largest impact from that caused significant damage in the U.S. The insurer will likely shoulder net losses of $631 million, before taxes, across 19 states, with the majority of those losses stemming from Louisiana. The losses are net of anticipated reinsurance recoveries under the company's excess catastrophe reinsurance program, partially offset by reinstatement premiums.

The Progressive Corp. expects its incurred losses from Ida through Sept. 15. to be roughly $510 million.

The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. CFO Beth Costello during a conference call that said the impact from Ida would be "somewhere around $200 million pretax." When asked about the potential for reinsurance to handle some of the impact, Costello said named storm coverage does not kick in until the $350 million mark.

"We're nowhere near that as far as an estimate," she said.

S&P Global Market Intelligence's previous analysis shows State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. and Allstate have the largest residential exposure in Gulf Coast states that hit by Hurricane Ida. State Farm has not released any loss projections.

Like State Farm, American International Group Inc. has yet to disclose any specific dollar amount for the losses it will sustain from Ida, though the company has said that it will be a "very sizable event."

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In September, risk modeling firm RMS estimated insured losses from the Ida to be between $31 billion and $44 billion. Based on Aon's 2020 report on the most costly tropical cyclones to strike the U.S., Ida may be second only to Katrina as measured by adjusted insured losses.

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