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Insight Weekly: US election scenarios; borrowing costs rise; commercial REIT fears


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Insight Weekly: US election scenarios; borrowing costs rise; commercial REIT fears

In this edition of Insight Weekly, we take a look at potential outcomes of the U.S. midterm elections. Based on strong ties between most of the Democrats in Congress and strict generic congressional party polls, IHS Markit expects the Democrats to hold the Senate, and Republicans to take the House of Representatives. The next most likely scenario would see the Democrats emerge with a majority in both the congressional chambers. The party is expected to benefit from the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn federal abortion rights and a favorable Senate map. Results of key individual races and control of Congress will shape the direction of national climate and energy legislation over the next two years.

Surging interest rates and reducing liquidity in financial markets are driving borrowing costs higher around the world. Due to weakening investors interest in the global sovereign bonds, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yielded 3.89% as of Oct. 7, up from 1.63% in the beginning of the year.

The U.S. commercial real estate market is expecting to deteriorate due to increasing demand from employees to work remotely. Average office occupancy across 10 major U.S. cities was at about 47% at the end of September, according to Kastle Systems, more than 50% below the prepandemic levels, or up from 36% in 2021.

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