Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 9 March 2026

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US inflation and UK GDP under spotlight amid Middle East war assessment

The markets will be focused on events in the Middle East but have key inflation releases out of the US to divert attention, as well as UK GDP, eurozone production and mainland China's inflation numbers to watch out for.

The developing situation in the Middle East will inevitably dominate the markets in the coming week, and in particular any signs of the war becoming protracted. While a short-term spike in energy prices is unwelcome, it is not the game changer that a longer bout of elevated oil and gas prices potentially represents in terms of economic growth and inflation forecasting. S&P Global Connect users can access our regular updates via the MENA regional conflict pages.

A source of encouragement was that, prior to the outbreak of war, the global economy was showing signs of renewed life, which could add to resilience in the face of the Middle East crisis, especially if the war is short-lived. The global PMI's output index hit one of its highest readings since the pandemic in February, signaling an upturn in global GDP growth to an annualized 3.0% rate.

We need to wait until 24th March for the first real signs of economic health since the war started via the March flash PMIs, but the week still provides some important economic releases. In particular, the US inflation picture will be updated through both the CPI and the Fed's preferred PCE price index. More details on US economic growth will also be provided through the second estimate of Q4 GDP, with prior estimates having disappointed. Some clues as to how US households are feeling will also be gleaned from the University of Michigan survey.

In Europe, monthly GDP data are issued in the UK, and we will be looking for signs that growth has started to pick up following encouraging signals from PMI surveys. The UK labour market is also under scrutiny from the REC/KPMG recruitment industry survey. Elsewhere in Europe, a key release is industrial production data for the eurozone, including for Germany, which PMI data have indicated to be reviving at a pace not seen for nearly four years.

In APAC, China's ongoing National People's Congress is accompanied by consumer and producer price updates, while GDP data are issued for both Japan and South Korea.

Also watch out for the PMI-based Global Business Outlook survey, released Wednesday, and the S&P Global Investment Manager Index for March, released Tuesday.

Chart of the week: Global economic growth accelerated in February

The global PMI hit its highest levels since May 2024, and one of the best readings seen since the pandemic, in February, indicating that global economic growth had more or less returned to its long-run trend rate ahead of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. This points to promising signs of life given the uncertainty that was already simmering around US tariffs and the Middle East situation through February, but March surveys will be eagerly assessed to see whether growth has faltered in the face of the ongoing crisis.

Read more about recent global PMI trends here.

Key diary events

Monday 9 Mar

Americas
- Mexico Inflation (Feb)
- US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Feb)

EMEA
- Germany Industrial Production (Jan)
- UK KPMG / REC Report on Jobs* (Feb)

APAC
- China (Mainland) CPI, PPI (Feb)
- Taiwan Balance of Trade (Feb)
- China (Mainland) National People's Congress (Mar 5-13)

Tuesday 10 Mar

S&P Global Investment Manager Index* (Feb)

Americas
- Mexico Consumer Confidence (Feb)
- US ADP Weekly Employment Change
- US Existing Home Sales (Feb)

EMEA
- Germany Balance of Trade (Jan)
- Sweden GDP (Jan)
- Türkiye Industrial Production (Jan)
- France Balance of Trade (Jan)

APAC
- South Korea GDP (Q4, final)
- Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Mar)
- Japan Household Spending (Jan)
- Japan GDP (Q4, final)
- Australia NAB Business Confidence (Feb)
- China (Mainland) Balance of Trade (Jan-Feb)

Wednesday 11 Mar

Global Business Outlook* (Feb)

Global Supply Chain Volatility Index* (Feb)

Americas
- Brazil Retail Sales
- US CPI (Feb)

EMEA
- Germany Inflation (Feb, final)
- Türkiye Retail Sales (Jan)
- Spain Retail Sales (Jan)

APAC
- Japan PPI (Feb)
- Malaysia Unemployment Rate (Jan)
- Japan Machine Tool Orders (Feb)

Thursday 12 Mar

Americas
- Brazil Inflation (Feb)
- Canada Balance of Trade (Jan)
- US Building Permits (Jan, prelim)
- US Housing Starts (Jan)
- US Balance of Trade (Jan)

EMEA
- UK RICS House Price Balance (Feb)
- Sweden Inflation (Feb, final)
- Türkiye TCMB Interest Rate Decision

APAC
- India Inflation (Feb)

Friday 13 Mar

Americas
- Mexico Industrial Production (Jan)
- Canada Unemployment Rate (Feb)
- US Core PCE Price Index (Jan)
- US GDP (Q4, 2nd est.)
- US Personal Income and Spending (Jan)
- US Durable Goods Orders (Jan)
- US JOLTs Job Openings (Jan)
- US UoM Sentiment (Mar, prelim)

EMEA
- Germany Wholesale Prices (Feb)
- UK monthly GDP, incl. Manufacturing, Services and Construction Output (Jan)
- Italy Industrial Production (Jan)
- Eurozone Industrial Production (Jan)

APAC
- Hong Kong SAR Industrial Production (Q4)

Saturday 14 Mar

APAC
- China (Mainland) M2, New Yuan Loans, Loan Growth (Feb)

* Access press releases of indices produced by S&P Global and relevant sponsors here.

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.