Customer Logins

Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.

Customer Logins

My Logins

All Customer Logins
S&P Global Market Intelligence

  • S&P Global
  • S&P Dow Jones Indices
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence
  • S&P Global Mobility
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights
  • S&P Global Ratings
  • S&P Global Sustainable1
Close
Discover more about S&P Global’s offerings
Investor Relations
  • Investor Relations Overview
  • Investor Presentations
  • Investor Fact Book
  • News Releases
  • Quarterly Earnings
  • SEC Filings & Reports
  • Executive Committee
  • Corporate Governance
  • Merger Information
  • Stock & Dividends
  • Shareholder Services
  • Contact Investor Relations
Languages
  • English
  • 中文
  • 日本語
  • 한국어
  • Português
  • Español
  • ไทย
About
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Email Subscription Center
  • Media Center
  • Glossary
Product Login
S&P Global Market Intelligence
  • Who We Serve
  • Solutions
  • News & Insights
  • Events
  • Product Login
  • Request Follow Up
  •  
    • Academia
    • Commercial Banking
    • Corporations
     
    • Government & Regulatory Agencies
    • Insurance
    • Investment & Global Banking
     
    • Investment Management
    • Private Equity
    • Professional Services
  • WORKFLOW SOLUTIONS
    • Capital Formation
    • Credit and Risk Solutions
    • Data & Distribution
    • Economics & Country Risk
    • Sustainability
    • Financial Technology Solutions
     
    • Issuer & IR Solutions
    • Lending Solutions
    • Post Trade Processing
    • Private Markets
    • Risk, Compliance, & Reporting
    • Supply Chain
    PRODUCTS
    • S&P Capital IQ Pro
    • S&P Global Marketplace
    • China Credit Analytics
    • Climate Credit Analytics
    • Credit Analytics
    • RatingsDirect ®
    • RatingsXpress ®
    • 451 Research
    See More S&P Global Solutions
     
    • Capital Access
    • Corporate Actions
    • KY3P ®
    • EDM
    • PMI™
    • BD Corporate
    • Bond Pricing
    • ChartIQ
  • CONTENT
    • Latest Headlines
    • Special Features
    • Blog
    • Research
    • Videos
    • Infographics
    • Newsletters
    • Client Case Studies
    PODCASTS
    • Economics & Country Risk
    • IR in Focus
    • Maritime and Trade Talk
    • Masters of Risk
    • Next in Tech
    • Private Markets 360°
    • Street Talk
    • The Pipeline: M&A and IPO Insights
    SEE ALL EPISODES
    SECTOR-SPECIFIC INSIGHTS
    • Differentiated Data
    • Banking & Insurance
    • Energy
    • Maritime, Trade, & Supply Chain
    • Metals & Mining
    • Technology, Media, & Telecoms
    • Investment Research
    • Sector Coverage
    • Expert Directory
    More ways we can help
    NEWS & RESEARCH TOPICS
    • Economics & Country Risk
    • Financial Services
    • Generative AI
    • Liquidity Crunch
    • Maritime & Trade
    • M&A
    • Private Markets
    • Sustainability & Climate
    • Technology
    See More
    • All Events
    • In-Person
    • Webinars
    • Webinar Replays
    Featured Events
    WebinarQ4 Global Economies in Flux: Drive Decisions with the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®)
    • 12/13/2023
    • Live, Online
    • 10:00 am - 11:00 am EST | 04:00 pm - 05:00 pm CET
    In PersonS&P Global and Stanford GSB Chapter of Hong Kong 7th Annual Financial Forum 2024: Chasing Mega Trends in Turbulent Times
    • 01/18/2024
    • The Ritz-Carlton, Hong Kong
    • 1:00PM - 5:00PM Hong Kong Time
    WebinarOptimism or More Headwinds? State of M&A after a Challenging Year
    • 12/12/2023
    • Live, Online
    • 11:00 AM EST / 4:00 PM BST
  • PLATFORMS
    • S&P Capital IQ Pro
    • S&P Capital IQ
    • S&P Global China Credit Analytics
    • S&P Global Marketplace
    OTHER PRODUCTS
    • Credit Analytics
    • Panjiva
    • Money Market Directories
     
    • Research Online
    • 451 Research
    See All Product Logins
BLOG Jun 20, 2022

The Ukrainian supply chain issue will remain the main upside risk to food inflation in the coming months even with significant increase in shipments from Danube ports

Contributor Image
Daejin Lee

Director, Shipping Analytics and Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights

The Ukrainian supply chain issue will remain the main upside risk to food inflation in the coming months even with significant increase in shipments from Danube ports; total volume is too small to offset the loss of cargo from Ukraine.

Following the inflation and food crisis, there are several discussions on how to export or move the Ukrainian grain, and other cargo. We have already seen a significant increase in shipments from Danube River ports in Ukraine and Romania. However, most of the shipments are done by small ships less than 10,000 dwt, therefore the total volume is too small to offset the loss of the cargo, at least for now.

Recent news about silos on the borders with Ukraine to use inland transportation more efficiently is gaining more attention now. However, in our view, it will take months to procure equipment, move it into place, construct, and make it operational.

Therefore, the grain volume during the Black Sea grain season starting from the third quarter will be fairly limited and the shortage of world grain, especially wheat, is expected to continue in the near term. This supply chain issue will remain the main upside risks to food inflation in the coming months.

  • Following the Russia-Ukraine war, dry bulk and general cargo vessel (which can carry grain cargo) departures from Ukrainian and Romanian Danube River ports have increased by 53% from a month ago to 1.8 million deadweight tons in May 2022 with larger employment of small general cargo ships. However, total volume is limited to offset the loss of Ukrainian cargo. Combined capacity of dry bulk and general cargo ship departures from Ukraine has decreased by 92% from year-ago level (10 million deadweight) to below 1 million deadweight tons.

  • Transporting Ukraine's agricultural products by rail to ports in Romania is costly and time consuming; The railway border crossings have limited capacity for rail wheel replacement, as Ukraine rail (1,520 mm gauge) infrastructure links to Russia rather than Romania (1,435 mm gauge).
  • Temporary silos built along the border with Ukraine would increase export volume via alternative ports including Danube River ports but not significant in the near term since silos on the borders will take months to procure equipment, move it into place, construct, and make it operational, according to S&P Global Agribusiness intelligence team.

For more insight subscribe to our complimentary commodity analytics newsletter

Posted 20 June 2022 by Daejin Lee, Director, Shipping Analytics and Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights


This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

Previous Next
Recommended for you

Maritime & Trade: Maritime Solutions
Global Trade Solutions
How can our products help you?

We can optimize your trade data to help your business grow

Learn more

Hire industry-leading consultants by the hour

Get the objective, authoritative analysis you need without delays.
FIND AN EXPERT
Related Posts
VIEW ALL
Blog Nov 13, 2023

Hobbled Panama Canal pinched further as eastern Asia factory growth favors Suez

Blog Nov 13, 2023

Retailers pivot in fast-moving trans-Pacific as carriers accelerate blank sailings

Blog Nov 13, 2023

US wind industry navigates deep waters to meet ambitious offshore target

VIEW ALL
{"items" : [ {"name":"share","enabled":true,"desc":"<strong>Share</strong>","mobdesc":"Share","options":[ {"name":"facebook","url":"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2fukrainian-supply-chain-issue-will-remain-the-main-upside-risks.html","enabled":true},{"name":"twitter","url":"https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2fukrainian-supply-chain-issue-will-remain-the-main-upside-risks.html&text=The+Ukrainian+supply+chain+issue+will+remain+the+main+upside+risk+to+food+inflation+in+the+coming+months+even+with+significant+increase+in+shipments+from+Danube+ports+%7c+S%26P+Global+","enabled":true},{"name":"linkedin","url":"https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2fukrainian-supply-chain-issue-will-remain-the-main-upside-risks.html","enabled":true},{"name":"email","url":"?subject=The Ukrainian supply chain issue will remain the main upside risk to food inflation in the coming months even with significant increase in shipments from Danube ports | S&P Global &body=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2fukrainian-supply-chain-issue-will-remain-the-main-upside-risks.html","enabled":true},{"name":"whatsapp","url":"https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=The+Ukrainian+supply+chain+issue+will+remain+the+main+upside+risk+to+food+inflation+in+the+coming+months+even+with+significant+increase+in+shipments+from+Danube+ports+%7c+S%26P+Global+ http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2fukrainian-supply-chain-issue-will-remain-the-main-upside-risks.html","enabled":true}]}, {"name":"rtt","enabled":true,"mobdesc":"Top"} ]}
Filter Sort
  • About Us
  • Quality Program
  • Contact Us
  • Email Subscription Center
  • Press Releases
  • Careers
  • Corporate Responsibility
  • Our History
  • Investor Relations
  • Leadership
  • © 2023 S&P Global
  • Terms of Use
  • Cookie Notice
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclosures
  • Do Not Sell My Personal Information