ICMA’s AMIC conference on 27 November considered the EU’s efforts to establish an “Ecolabel” for environmentally-friendly investment vehicles. ...
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ICMA’s AMIC conference on 27 November considered the EU’s efforts to establish an “Ecolabel” for environmentally-friendly investment vehicles. ...
Commodity prices finally join other asset classes in increasing
This week’s clear highlight is China’s return to the dollar bond market with a substantially-oversubscribed four-tranche issue.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in October
New data protection law increases regulatory burden in Kenya's mobile money lending sector; more regulation likely
After drying out in 2018, turkey prices are set to soak up a little more gravy this Thanksgiving
Western Balkan "mini-Schengen" initiative has potential to boost trade, but will be limited to agriculture and tourism
Despite positive wording coming from US-China trade talks commodity prices fell again last week
Colombian government likely to struggle to implement economic policies in 2020 because of social and legislative opposition
Sweden’s central bank has followed the recent example set by Norway’s state pension fund in divesting assets deemed to have a high carbon footprint...
Over the past decade strong economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa was accompanied by resurgent commodity prices and growing demands for infrastructure...
Dispute over Taranto steelworks increases likelihood of nationalization but does not represent shift in Italy's industrial policy
Since late August, the negative-yielding debt stock fell USD5 trillion to USD12 trillion with France’s 10 year OAT now giving a positive yield...
Retailers have good reason to be optimistic about the upcoming holiday shopping season, but not without a hint of caution
Optimism that tariffs might be selectively reduced lifted commodity prices mid-week before falling flat
Opposition protests to escalate before Djibouti’s 2020-21 elections, with presidential succession and boundary disputes being notable triggers...
Greece has unveiled an asset protection scheme aimed at helping banks to lower their non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, which is the highest in...
China raised 12- and 20-year funding in its first Euro-deal since 2004. Brazil sold 10-and 31-year dollar debt at its second-lowest cost to date....
Rajiv Biswas, our Asia Pacific Chief Economist, provides his comments on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership deal which will create...
A PMI surprise, a Fed rate cut, and trade optimism failed to buoy commodity markets
Baghdadi's death unlikely to significantly reduce capabilities of Islamic State-aligned localized jihadist factions in Syria and Iraq
Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan likely to resume talks over Nile dam dispute; escalation to military action highly unlikely
Debt markets eased only modestly after the first-round Peronist victory in Argentina’s elections but Lebanon is attracting growing adverse focus....
Umbria regional elections to bolster Italy’s Lega-led opposition and undermine cohesion of national government
Markets have taken on a bearish view of the near future due to trade policy uncertainty.
We are forecasting Americans to spend a total of $2.7 billion on Halloween candy in 2019, the most yet
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in September
Hungarian opposition's municipal election gains bolster hopes for 2022 general poll, but Fidesz government remains stable
While Barbados appears to have reached agreement with international creditors, Lebanese yields indicate increasing growing debt-sustainability...
The October Global Economic Forecast Flash from Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh and Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Global Economics
EU proposals to establish development bank targeting sub-Saharan Africa likely to advance slowly given significant disagreements
The on-going slow-down in Chinese industrial activity continues to check raw material prices
While demographic challenges are daunting, some countries are better positioned than others to live with shrinking populations.
Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific Chief Economist at S&P Global, provides his comments on BOK’s decision to cut the policy rate
A post-crisis record CMBS sale, the first sub-1% corporate perpetual, and a large Italian project bond all indicate healthy risk appetite
Optimism over a possible US-China trade deal was not enough to keep commodity prices from falling
Italian power firm Enel will stop issuing Green Bonds, in favor of sustainable debt, while Sweden and Italy are preparing Green Bond debuts.
Peruvian president's move to constitutionally shut down Congress likely to trigger political standoff, delaying investments and projects
Chilean Supreme Court order to re-assess mining project signals legal uncertainties and likely delays for large-scale developments
Kenya's proposed budget cut likely to target public-sector wage bill, increasing likelihood of strikes
Diminution of trade policy uncertainty to pre-2015 levels has the potential to boost GDP by 0.5%.
Highlights this week include Greek corporate issuance and record-low yields for auctions of five and ten-year Italian government debt.
Energy prices retrace lower whilst trade issues and politics cast a long shadow of uncertainty
Energy prices retrace lower whilst trade issues and politics cast a long shadow of uncertainty
Having given up earlier plans to issue a Eurobond this year Belarus remains financially fragile.
Emerging market sovereign supply has revived strongly with sovereign issuance by South Africa, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Ecuador and Uruguay this week....
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in August.
Constitutional Court ruling denies province-wide anti-mining referendum in Azuay, Ecuador, reducing likelihood of mining prohibition
A second Fed rate cut supports growth while oil volatility hits commodity prices
Inconclusive Israeli parliamentary election increases likelihood of unity government being formed; shifts in security policy unlikely
Following last week’s ECB easing, European markets have shown strong demand, absorbing an impressive corporate and financial-sector calendar....
Easing trade tensions and policy stimulus in Europe lifts prices
Ethiopia's new economic program to strengthen investor protections but foreign-exchange scarcity will persist, limiting investment inflows.
Understanding the factors that have likely led to a technical recession in Germany around mid-2019 is key to assessing the outlook in the months...
Ken Wattret, Chief European Economist, provides his initial thoughts on economic outlook following the European Central Bank meeting
The Bank believes that “the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate.”
A flurry of good news eases tensions but commodity prices resist the risk-on mood
Berkshire Hathaway sold a record JPY430 billion global yen issue: 2019 Samurai supply already has surpassed the prior annual peak.
Spend 30 minutes with our economics and country risk experts as we look at what's unfolding in Argentina.
A look at the global economic outlook from our Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh
Tight labor markets are continuing to boost wages across income groups, while consumer price inflation has moderated relative to 2018
Jamaica’s economic management has improved greatly during the three-year Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund, which...
LME nickel price will move moderately lower over the near term once the short covering is completed
Markets have been highly active after Labor Day: a record 21 US high grade deals were launched on 3 September, bolstered by poor US PMI data....
Brazilian Senate's finalisation of pension reform with slight modifications is very likely, implementation to help reduce fiscal deficit
New Nigerian cabinet's composition indicates government unlikely to reduce power-sector liquidity shortages and energy industry corruption
Risk to the corporate debt market is not systemic and remains contained when examined in aggregate, with concerns limited to certain sub-industries...
Trade tensions ease but commodities continue to struggle
Argentina plans “voluntary reprofiling” of its international debt including IMF borrowings and enforced payment delay on domestic obligations...
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.4% in July.
Tariff hikes again lower expectations for demand
This week’s most notable development was Germany’s undersubscribed 30-year EUR2 billion Bund auction: EUR824 million was sold at -0.11%.
Uncertainty and fear of slowing aggregate demand send prices down again
Ethiopia's proposed off-grid electricity tariff reform and predictable network expansion plans likely to increase solar power investment
Guatemala’s next president elected on pro-business platform, policy implementation likely to face delays in opposition-led Congress
Argentine securities faced exceptional volatility after its Primary elections indicated a first-round victory for the Peronist opposition.
Opposition wins Argentine primaries making re-election of pro-business president highly unlikely, risk of state interventionism increases
Commodity prices retreat, broadly led by an overdue correction in Iron ore
Atlanta, Dallas, Jacksonville, Nashville, Phoenix and Raleigh strike the right note with business costs/employment growth
Negative-yielding debt grew USD1 trillion in two days after the US expanded trade sanctions against China
Week Ahead Economic Preview
Nariman Behravesh’s analysis of the devaluation of the renminbi and economic impact
The prospect of a broader and more prolonged US-China trade issues unsettles markets.
Central government to oversee Indian Kashmir's security following special autonomy abrogation, increasing likelihood of cross-border skirmishes...
Modelling non-damage business interruption caused by terrorism attacks
More outstanding debt, especially in Euros, now provides negative returns. Worldline’s new convertible sale set a record of -0.96%.
Fuel shortages resulting from Western sanctions on Syrian government likely indirectly benefit Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists in Idlib province
There are indications that labor market conditions in France are tighter than suggested by the standard unemployment rate
IED attacks highlight new targets in Chile’s capital, including companies’ assets and executives, hastening passage of anti-terrorism law
Analysis from our US economics team on the July 31 FOMC rate decision and market reaction
Bearish sentiment returns on weak economic data
2020 budget proposal indicates changing Colombian government priorities; cuts planned in agriculture, energy and mining, transport.
Despite pending key central bank meetings, Panama, Mexico, YPF Luz and various Italian borrowers benefited from receptive conditions
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in June.
No real direction in materials prices despite dovish tones from the Fed
Sudanese coup attempt unlikely to have been at advanced stage, but likely stalling transition negotiations motivate protests
AB Inbev withdrew the USD9.8 billion sale of its Asian unit, citing “market conditions”, despite US stock indices reaching all-time highs.
Reappointment of South African central bank governor significantly lowers risk of nationalization and mandate revision
Mexican government's renegotiation of gas pipeline contracts highlights broader decline in legal certainty across multiple sectors
Prices retreat fractionally as markets enter a holding pattern in anticipation of the Fed’s next move.
Deflation worries would return if the economy were hit by a major adverse shock.
Increase in spending as part of the new budget requires efforts to increase tax revenue as last year's tax revenue performance was below target....
Case study on how to value country risks in Mozambique and Peru
Sudanese leader seeks union with South Sudan, probably to increase revenue share from natural resources
Turkey’s central bank governor was fired abruptly while Mexico’s Finance Minister resigned, publicly criticizing the AMLO administration.
Disagreement between the Council and Parliament over the nomination of new EU leaders indicates an increased likelihood of inter-institutional...
Indian budget focuses on tariff support for domestic manufacturing: wider economic liberalization in India likely to proceed gradually
Iron ore hits another 5-year high whilst US ethylene surges.
New center-left Danish government to focus on increased social spending and cutting greenhouse gas emissions
European bond markets have reached new record lows, while tighter EM spreads have encouraged Turkey and Argentine corporates to issue
Easing tensions between US-China counter fears of economic weakness for now
Severe aviation and marine risks in western Libya as LNA threatens retaliation for Turkish support to GNA.
Emerging market and other higher-risk debt supply has continued unabated, including sales by YPF and subordinated Greek bank debt.
Houthi threat to target international shipping indicates growing marine risks in the southern Yemeni Red Sea
Monthly US GDP Index Rose 0.2% in May 2019
Geopolitics, supply issues and buoyed sentiment outweigh growth fears to lift commodity prices.
Expulsion of senior ruling party figures elevates coup risk in Lesotho
Haitian president’s mention in court corruption report raises ousting chances, power vacuum over coming months highly likely
Our Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh, looks at whats driving the current economic expansion in the US
Armed robbery risk rises in Casamance region of Senegal as peace negotiations with militant factions stall
EU's further postponement of accession negotiations with Albania, North Macedonia undermines judiciary, governance reforms, Western Balkans stability...
While this week’s supply has abated after last week’s rush, European bond markets have rallied sharply to new historic lows
Large moves in iron ore, lumber and other key commodities turned commodity prices up last week.
If secessionists' responsibility claim for Cameroonian refinery fire is legitimate, it would represent notable capability increase
Five sovereign borrowers - Croatia, Indonesia, Italy, Lithuania and Spain - have issued this week with Peru, Serbia and Ukraine pending.
Delay to new framework agreement on Swiss-EU relations beyond October federal elections would risk causing disruption to trade.
Further cancellation of official meeting between two Koreas indicates even leadership-level summits unlikely to reduce war risks.
Large oil inventory gain reinforces oversupply concerns in markets already suffering from poor demand outlook.
Spend 30 minutes with our analysts to understand the political disagreement over RBSA's role and adverse economic developments
New tariff threat on Mexican imports hurt the chance for the USMCA’s ratification.
Global economic growth slips to three year low amid gloomier outlook
Turkish military operation in Iraq's Kurdish region against PKK unlikely to affect nearby cities or oil assets.
Despite ongoing market volatility, plans for equity sales are reviving involving at least six significant transactions.
Chilean government prepares national lithium policy, likely easing conditions for investment; opposition’s nationalization demands to delay implementation....
Local content, revenue mobilization and anti-corruption will continue to drive transitions and contract risk in Africa in the next 2 years.
Kenya's escalation of boundary dispute with Somalia increases likelihood of refugee returnees and travel disruption.
We now expect the next adjustment to the Fed interest rate policy will occur mid-2020, later than our previous forecast of late-2019.
Zambian bond yields spiked late last week to a 20 percent spread over US Treasuries, double their margin in early 2019.
EU elections alter political power dynamics at expense of center-right and center-left, increasing dependency on varying coalitions.
During May, equity markets have reversed while bond risk spreads have widened.
Easing inflationary expectations and slower economic activities suggest the beginning of the Philippines’ monetary easing cycle.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in April.
Majority win for Indian PM to permit strong central government, growth-boosting measures and flagship schemes to be prioritized.
Inventories and demand concerns resulted in Brent's worst week in 2019
Six major green bond sales and five emerging market sovereign issues confirm continued risk appetite.
The risk from government and nonfinancial corporate debt remains modest, however, if the global economy falters, or interest rates rise significantly...
The lira is on the precipice of a crisis, undermined by falling reserves and declining institutional integrity.
Pakistan secures additional financing from the IMF but risks or program slippages and loan disbursement delays are significant.
Protectionists likely to stymie Nigeria's implementation of African Continental Free Trade Agreement even if government signs up
Change of Sri Lankan president likely in December 2019 election given adverse fallout from Easter attacks.
Announced Kirchnerist ticket for Argentina’s elections appeals to moderate Peronists; divisions and rearrangement in ruling coalition likely....
Incumbent coalition's surprise victory in Australian election increases likelihood of SME tax cuts and new mining licenses.
Growing political and policy threats mean any rebound in global growth could be ephemeral.
Spend 30 minutes with our analysts to understand whats happening in the three largest economies in Latin America
Ugandan opposition co-operation agreement increases risk of disruptive protests, indicates growing likelihood of contested election in 2021.
Emerging market debt remaining receptive; market sentiment to be tested by US-China trade dispute and soft initial Uber share price performance...
Breakdown of trade negotiations pours cold water on commodity prices.
We expect travel to rise by 1.5 million from last year as 42.8 million travelers are expected to take to the rails, roads and skies during the...
Argentine president’s plan of national unity rejected by opposition, election uncertainty continues to be key risk driver.
Implementation of ceasefire conditions reduces immediate likelihood of resumed escalation between Israel and Gazan militant groups.
Threats of increased US tariffs on China, Hong Kong’s debut Green bond and long-dated Eurozone supply.
The decade-long spurt for US tourism is fizzling. Solid domestic demand being offset by fewer foreign arrivals, due to slowing global growth...
Mixed data drains optimism from commodities
Global monetary policy actions and resulting economic impact around the world
Consensus Economics names S&P Global best forecasters for Colombia and Malaysia in 2018
Lebanon’s 2019 draft budget unlikely to reduce fiscal deficit significantly; recurring protests over public-sector cuts likely.
Ruling ANC divided ahead of pivotal South African election
Our May economic flash for the US
Monthly GDP Index rose 0.1% in March 2019
This week’s headlines are about future supply, of which sovereign deals by Kenya and Oman represent important debt-sustainability tests.
Chadian crackdown on civil society and internet restrictions indicate president's insecurities but Sudan-style overthrow unlikely
Forestry contractors in Chile's Araucanía region are increasingly targets of arson attacks by Mapuche indigenous extremists.
Archaeological, environmental concerns and local protests in Greece likely to impede construction projects ahead of elections.
Bulgaria’s supervisory framework is weaker than European Union’s standards, raising uncertainty over its near-term accession to the banking union...
Cyprus and Greece plan early market refinancing of official “rescue” borrowings while Italy will badly miss its EU-agreed budget goals
A broad but shallow rise indicates caution still
IPO activity has been boosted by eight US flotations and sizeable deals from Swiss, Italian, Chinese and African issuers.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP fell 0.5% in February.
Anti-government protests in Albania pose property damage risks but unlikely to topple government.
Venezuelan migrant flows to Colombia to continue rising, increasing welfare outlays; risk of related protests remains moderate.
Proposed referendum on privatization of Paris airports unlikely to be replicated across other projects.
The proposed nominations of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
Spend 30 minutes with our experts and understand what's happening in Bulgaria
Outcome and implications from the election
Due to Brexit-related uncertainty, UK real GDP growth is projected to downshift-the risks remain overwhelmingly on the downside.
Supply disruptions, geopolitical tension and positive economic data help to move commodities higher.
Opening Brazilian airline industry to foreign investment highly likely as Lower House approves government-sponsored bill.
Indian Supreme Court ruling against RBI will weaken insolvency regime, potentially increasing government interference in corporate resolution....
Aftermath of mining disaster in Brazil's Minas Gerais impairs royalties and tax collection, non-payment risk rises.
European Parliament passes copyright directive; increased regulatory burden for online platforms mitigated by implementation delays and low enforceability....
Mexico unlikely to control migration flows into the US, increasing risk of trade-related disruptions at US-Mexico border.
A struggling manufacturing sector continues to present a challenge for commodity markets
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.7% in January.
Strong domestic credit growth and solid export revenue inflows secured remarkably strong economic expansion in Georgia 2018, but some weakening...
Fiscal austerity is expected to hurt Ecuador’s economy, despite the benefits bought by multilateral loan assistance.
Presidential-election delay raises risk of violent protests in Kabul and northern Afghanistan; interim government increasingly likely.
Over USD10 trillion of debt now provides negative yields, versus USD5.7 billion early in 2018
Rising rates of drug-related violence in Colombia’s Medellín heighten collateral injury risks to bystanders.
Oil and chemicals prices dominate otherwise calm markets.
Ukraine’s presidential election very likely to see split vote leading to second round; conflicting policy announcements likely.
Volatility returned to the currency market driven by the elevated inflation rate and the failed attempt to reduce the extreme monetary policy...
This week’s bond issuance is exceptional, with five emerging market sovereign deals and four bank AT1 perpetuals.
Fundamentals rather than politics play on most commodities.
Gambian president sacks deputy, two senior ministers but presence of regional peacekeeping force mitigates civil war risk.
Renewed social programs funding to help contain protest risks, but unlikely to improve Argentine president’s re-election prospects
Understand the impact of wage policy on price increases in 2019
The Trump Administration’s tariffs on US imports of iron, steel, and other metals, plus additional tariffs on goods from China, will dampen both...
Petrobras revives Latin American bond supply with USD3 billion long-dated success
Ambush underlines growing tempo of separatist violence in Indonesia’s Papua; threat remains limited in scope and capability.
US jobs data and Chinese exports helped to weigh on global markets and sentiment
Likely ad-hoc repatriation of Islamic State foreign fighters would strengthen jihadist networks in Europe.
Despite equity market strength, developed market equity funds show ongoing outflows
Incumbent's clear first-round victory in Senegalese presidential election reduces protest risk and boosts further infrastructure expansion.
What does the Vale mine disaster mean for steel buyers?
Despite the worsening economic and political outlook Nicaragua’s President Ortega is likely to remain in power until the next presidential elections...
Moldova’s parliamentary vote outcome indicates likelihood of a minority government or a new election.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in December.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in November.
Positive sentiment offsets weak data keeping commodity prices relatively flat
Indian airstrike in Pakistani territory increases risk of unintended military escalation, but full military confrontation unlikely
Sudanese president's cabinet, governor reshuffle indicates shrinking support base, aimed at ensuring military's loyalty amid ongoing protests....
Latin American risks presentation at the March ISMA-OSAC conference
Three successful sovereign sales, further AT1 supply and corporate issuance all indicate strong demand for longer-duration debt
Commodity prices retreated on disappointing macroeconomic data in light trading.
Due to local opposition, Amazon has decided not to pursue the New York City portion of its “HQ2” project.
Santander’s high-profile decision was based on balancing between shareholder and bondholder interests.
Ethiopia's proposed mining law changes indicate more competitive tax regime but cancellation of underperforming exploration contracts likely....
Statement on Trepça mining complex indicates renewed EU, international drive for comprehensive relationship agreement between Kosovo and Serbia....
Vale dam accident sends iron ore market running scared as prices test $90 /t level.
Pro-government leaders to head Brazilian Congress; fractured legislature and resistance to austerity likely to dilute pension reform.
While bond markets continue looking receptive and the US IPO calendar is reviving, the latest EU PMIs point to tougher equity conditions
The Islamic State’s territorial control has shrunk to a hand-full of small villages in the desert of eastern Syria, about 50 km2. We expect these...
Although it is not our base case, we assess the risk of a “technical” recession at around one in three. A severe recession remains unlikely...
Tools to raise additional budget revenues spooked the financial markets in Romania. A deeper dive into the Romanian economy shows that those...
Better sentiment carried prices higher though markets showed significant volatility.
Moderate Peronist faction to challenge Argentine president’s re-election, but likely to maintain pro-business agenda and IMF deal.
Compared with the euphoric mood in Davos 2018, this year the delegates were more subdued and wary.
Greece’s EUR2.5 billion deal came alongside three other European SSA successes, gaining demand of EUR82 billion for EUR17.5 billion supply.
Overwhelming vote for autonomy in Mindanao signals eventual MILF demobilization, security stabilization.
Take 30 minutes with our experts and understand what's happening in Nicaragua
Geopolitics, fundamentals and sentiment all played a part in limiting commodity markets last week.
Developments in both debt and equity markets almost entirely represent positive indicators, with demand extending to higher-risk perpetual debt....
Indonesia's 2019 presidential election likely getting tighter; policy continuity expected
Further rank-and-file mutinies likely in Venezuela alongside anti-government protests in traditionally pro-government shanty towns.
Revived Islamic State likely to mount raids into Libya’s Tripolitania and Cyrenaica from bases in southern desert .
Rumors from US-China trade negotiations hint at an easing trade war and improved sentiment
Pakistani separatist groups likely to be increasingly active despite sustained decline in nationwide NSAG attacks since 2014 .
Longer-term growth prospects appear less upbeat as the South African government pursues more aggressive redistribution policies
Optimism around US-China trade talks and a jump in oil send commodity prices higher
UK government's parliamentary defeat on deal with EU increases probability of delay to Brexit beyond March.
Policy mistakes, especially regarding trade, continue to be the biggest threats to global growth
Analysis on the political and economic implications of the rejection of the proposed Brexit deal
Despite security improvements, residual elevated risk of collateral damage at Damascus Airport, mainly from Israeli airstrikes.
Increased Zambian minerals royalties indicate government focus on natural resource sector to boost fiscal revenues, anti-government protests...
In 2019’s first full week’s trading, diverse emerging market sales and heavy European sovereign supply dominated primary activity.
Oil prices bounce in an oversold market, lifting the S&P Global Materials Price Index.
The unemployment rate could be boosted by as much as 0.2 percentage point and payroll employment could be reduced by as much as 380,000.
Policy paralysis likely in run-up to Panama's May presidential election; pro-business frontrunners will promote FDI.
A look at the direct and indirect impact of the US government shutdown on the US economy
Anti-government protests increase risk of snap election but unlikely to produce change in Serbian government.
Weak PMIs have indicated manufacturing-sector slowdown in both China and the EU, hindering equity market recovery.
Oil keeps the commodities rout going in an otherwise directionless market
Higher US interest rates and turmoil in Washington kept stock markets uneasy and sent commodity prices lower last week.
Net portfolio investment inflows have returned, but will remain precarious through 2019. External financing remains a challenge.
Despite a favorable bondholder tender, uncertainties remain over USD6 billion of MexCAT project bonds. Venezuela faces initial acceleration push...
An S&P Global scenario predicts that the economic consequences of a no-deal Brexit would be damaging.
Kosovo’s government has decided to use extreme economic measures to direct world’s attention to its political grievances.
BJP loses three Indian state elections; increased support for agriculture and MSMEs, greater RBI policy alignment likely.
Continued softness in commodity prices illustrates demand concerns.
Growing military influence in Brazil's new government, but support for privatization likely on selective target non-strategic assets.
Prospects are bright for now but negative effects of high emigration and low fertility rates will weigh on growth especially in Latvia and Lithuania....
Unsurprisingly, this week’s calendar is seasonally light.
Death and injury, armed robbery risks increase in Panama's Colón province, despite police anti-gang operations.
Zambian Constitutional Court ruling permits president to seek additional term amid ruling-party splits, non-payment risks likely.
Oil bounces on OPEC supply agreement but recent momentum and trade tensions still take commodity prices lower.
These top 10 economic risks, combined with heightened political uncertainty in many parts of the world, point to the increased vulnerability...
Petroperú oil spills underline security and operational shortcomings amid local opposition in Peru.
Regional election results in Andalucía likely to confirm challenges to Spain's main parties in 2019
High yield and non-callable fixed rate corporate debt have declined most
After declining for most of the week, markets rally as positive headlines flow from the G20 summit
Vote against mining company highlights strained economy, increasing arbitrary business demands, and violent protest risks in Liberia.
Haiti's opposition-promoted protests increase chances of government change over coming year; delays to legislative elections likely
Mexican mining draft law to increase environmental, social impact oversight over sector, but approval unlikely in 2018
Issuing banks have sold TLAC/MREL eligible and subordinated deals
Anti-corruption arrests indicate diminishing resistance within ruling party to reducing economic influence of Ethiopian state-directed, -owned...
Demand concerns meant another bruising week for oil, with the MPI dropping again.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in October.
A roaring job market is the gift that keeps on giving in 2018.
A number of bearish signals drove a broad-based decline in the MPI last week
Reserve Bank of India meeting signals increased executive scrutiny of central bank policy, interference in other independent institutions likely....
Temporary factors were responsible for much of the latest economic downturn
Revised UN plan for Libya unlikely to facilitate east-west rapprochement, maintaining the current status quo.
Croatia is nearing Schengen membership, benefiting EU ties while hardening the borders with its southeastern neighbors.
Healthy supply to take a bite out of turkey prices
Bougainville mid-2019 independence referendum in Papua New Guinea to delay mining development, raise likelihood of landowner attacks
Formal UK cabinet backing for draft EU Withdrawal Bill represents weak indicator of final parliamentary approval
Bond successes for Nigeria, Indonesia’s Italum and Gazprom and NLB/Kazatomprom equity opening premiums indicate stabilized primary markets
US mid-term election results lift sentiment before trade concerns drain the cheer again
Gaza ceasefire to hold but accelerate Israeli cabinet divisions and sustain high risk of renewed conflict.
Disagreement between Mexican president-elect and his party to delay control of banking fees, regulatory changes still likely