Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 26 February 2024

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Global manufacturing PMI, US core PCE and GDP readings

Global manufacturing PMI data will be due at the end of the week following the February flash PMI updates. Besides a central bank meeting in New Zealand, we will also be watching for a slew of key economic data including GDP data out of the US and Canada, as well as for various eurozone and APAC economies. US core PCE, eurozone and Japan inflation figures will notably also be key releases due in the week.

Inflation remains front and centre focus with a slew of CPI data keenly anticipated in the week, including the US core PCE reading due Thursday, which will help further assess the sticky inflation trend already signalled by the US CPI seen for January. Fed minutes from the January FOMC meeting highlighted concerns from US central bankers regarding cutting rates too quickly, though more recent S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI with its leading-indicator properties for inflation hinted at dissipating cost pressures.

Meanwhile February flash CPI figures out of the eurozone will be due at the end of the week with the market awaiting further signs of easing inflationary pressures, though more recent HCOB Flash Eurozone PMI figures have outlined some intensification of price pressures against expectations. That said, supplier lead times have notably improved in the eurozone following delays stemming from Red Sea shipping disruptions at the start of the year, and it will be of interest to observe how supply chain conditions have fared around the globe with the release of global manufacturing PMI data at the end of the week.

In APAC, Japan also updates inflation numbers with PMI data preluding further declines at present, which will be of interest to watch. Further cooling of price pressures and stagnating of growth conditions, as showed in February flash PMI data, may lead to reduced urgency for the Bank of Japan to move as the market continues to contemplate an April hike.

Finally, a series of GDP release will be due from various regions including a revised Q4 GDP in the US, several eurozone economies and from APAC economies including India.

Flash PMIs bring mixed news on inflation and supply chains

February's flash PMI surveys brought mixed news on inflation, with European prices looking stickier than in the US. The survey data relating to average prices charged for goods and services remained especially subdued in the US, running at a level broadly consistent with consumer price inflation at 2%. However, the same indices rose in the eurozone and UK, hinting at stubbornly elevated inflation around the 3% and 4% levels respectively. The UK was also notable in seeing a greater incidence of supply chain delays, linked in part to Red Sea shipping disruptions, which is a potential harbinger of higher prices in the coming months.

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Key diary events

Monday 26 Feb
Thailand Market Holiday
Singapore Industrial Production (Jan)
United States New Home Sales (Jan)

Tuesday 27 Feb
Japan Inflation (Jan)
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Feb)
France Consumer Confidence (Feb)
Taiwan Export Orders (Jan)
Hong Kong SAR Trade (Jan)
United States Durable Goods Orders (Jan)
United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (Dec)
United States CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)

Wednesday 28 Feb
Taiwan Market Holiday
New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate decision
Thailand Industrial Production (Jan)
Hong Kong SAR GDP (Q4, final)
Eurozone Economic Sentiment (Feb)
United States GDP (Q4, 2nd est.)
United States Wholesale Inventories (Jan)

Thursday 29 Feb
Japan Industrial Production (Jan, prelim)
Japan Retail Sales (Jan)
Australia Retail Sales (Jan, prelim)
Germany Retail Sales (Jan)
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices (Feb)
Turkey GDP (Q4)
France Inflation (Feb, prelim)
France GDP (Q4, final)
Spain Inflation (Feb, prelim)
Switzerland GDP (Q4)
Taiwan GDP (Q4, final)
Germany Unemployment Rate (Feb)
United Kingdom Mortgage Lending and Approvals (Feb)
India GDP (Q4)
Germany Inflation (Feb, prelim)
Canada GDP (Q4)
United States Core PCE Price Index (Jan)
United States Personal Income and Spending (Jan)

Friday 1 Mar
South Korea Market Holiday
Worldwide Manufacturing PMIs, incl. global PMI* (Feb)
South Korea Trade (Feb)
China (mainland) NBS PMI (Feb)
Indonesia Inflation (Feb)
Japan Consumer Confidence (Feb)
Eurozone Inflation (Feb, flash)
Italy GDP (Q4)
Italy Inflation (Feb, prelim)
Brazil GDP (Q4)
United States ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

* Access press releases of indices produced by S&P Global and relevant sponsors here.

What to watch in the coming week

Worldwide manufacturing PMI for February

Global manufacturing PMI data will be released on March 1st for insights into conditions in the goods producing sector. This comes after February's flash PMI surveys signalled sustained growth in various economies including the US, UK and India, while the downturn in the eurozone eased. That said, it was the service sector primarily supporting improvements in most instances. Price trends were meanwhile mixed with the US seeing cost pressures dissipating but the eurozone and UK experienced more sticky inflation (see page 3).

Americas: US GDP, core PCE, personal income, spending and ISM Manufacturing PMI, plus Canada GDP

Consensus expectations point to a higher figure for US core PCE in January following the release of higher-than-expected CPI numbers, which may lead to a shift of attention back to the potential for stubborn inflation to delay rate cuts. Concurrently, a revised Q4 GDP and personal income and spending figures will help to guide growth expectations amid recent indications of resilient growth from the February Flash US PMI. Other notable releases include US new home sales, house prices, durable goods orders and wholesale inventories.

Additionally, Canada updates Q4 GDP with subdued conditions expected to have been sustained into the end of the year. This was as PMI data, covering manufacturing and services, showed that the downturn in growth extended into the final quarter of 2023 and more recently into the start of 2024 as well, albeit at a softer pace.

EMEA: Eurozone inflation, Germany GfK consumer confidence, France, Italy GDP readings

Besides the manufacturing PMI releases, several key updates are expected from the euro area including eurozone flash February inflation figures and GDP numbers out of France and Italy. Leading indicator properties of the PMI price indices suggest that we may see some stickiness emanating from CPI numbers in the coming months, with the latest February HCOB Flash Eurozone PMI showing an intensification of price pressures.

Meanwhile Q4 GDP readings from France and Italy will help to provide a full-year growth picture. France, having remained among the worst-performing economies tracked by PMI data, will be closely watched for official indications.

APAC: RBNZ meeting, Japan CPI, industrial production and consumer confidence data, plus GDP for India, Taiwan and Hong Kong SAR

In addition to insights into February manufacturing sector conditions for APAC via PMI releases, the central bank meeting in New Zealand and GDP data out of several APAC economies are also anticipated. Among the highlights will be CPI numbers out of Japan with further easing of inflationary pressures expected, according to consensus (also hinted by PMI prices data).

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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