BLOG — Dec 01, 2021
US Monthly GDP Index for October 2021
By Ben Herzon and William Magee
Monthly GDP rose 1.5% in October following a 0.3% increase in September that was revised higher by 0.1 percentage point. The increase in October reflected contributions from domestic final sales (mainly personal consumption expenditures), net exports, and nonfarm inventory investment. The sharp acceleration in October was essentially accounted for by net exports, as exports of goods surged. The level of GDP in October was 8.4% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast of 7.6% annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a partial reversal in November of the October gain.
IHS Markit's index of Monthly US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.
