BLOG — Sep 01, 2021
US Monthly GDP Index for July 2021
By Ben Herzon and William Magee
Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in July following a 0.2% increase in June that was revised higher by about 0.2 point. The increase in July was more than accounted for by increases in net exports and nonfarm inventory investment. Personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed investment both declined in July.
Monthly GDP has been increasing at an average monthly rate of 0.2% per month since April. Implicit in our latest forecast of 4.7% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter is an acceleration of monthly GDP to growth of about 0.8% per month over August and September.
Our Index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.