Key state-level races take shape as 2024 US election cycle gets underway

Gubernatorial races

Of the 11 states holding gubernatorial elections, only one incumbent governor has indicated that they will seek reelection for a second term.

Current first-term Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) will be seeking the Republican nomination and will face former state Republican Party Chairman Carson Jorgensen and State Representative Phil Lyman during the June 25 primary election.

Three Republican governors — Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Vermont Gov. Phil Scott — have yet to announce whether they will seek an additional term in office. Burgum recently suspended a bid for the Republican presidential nomination after failing to qualify for several Republican debates; however, the governor has not yet indicated whether he is considering running for a third term in office.

The governors in five states — Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and West Virginia — are ineligible for reelection due to term limits. In addition, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D) declined to seek reelection for additional terms.

In 48 states, the governor serves for four years, with the governors in New Hampshire and Vermont serving two-year terms. Gubernatorial term limits are in place in 33 states.

Utility commissioners possibly affected by gubernatorial races

Not all utility commissioners are appointed by the governor. Nationwide, governors select commissioners serving at 34 state-level utility regulatory agencies. The General Assembly elects commissioners in two jurisdictions. In three states, the commissioners are chosen by other state officials and the governor. The commissioners at seven agencies are selected through statewide direct voter elections, while commissioners in six jurisdictions are elected by district.

In eight of the 11 states holding gubernatorial elections in 2024, the governor appoints the members of the state utility commission. In North Carolina, a new law enacted in October 2023 modified the selection process; the governor now appoints three members, and the General Assembly selects the remaining two members upon recommendation of the Speaker of the House of Representatives and President Pro Tempore of the Senate. In Montana and North Dakota, the commissioners are elected.

Nine commissioner terms are set to expire within one year of the November election in these states. However, with the enactment of the North Carolina bill, the North Carolina Utilities Commission membership will shrink to five members, and two of the three terms that expire in June 2025 will be terminated. The term that expires in 2025 will effectively become a gubernatorial appointment.

The governor designates the commission chair in nine states where gubernatorial elections will be held, and in five of those states, the chair serves at the governor's discretion for an unspecified term. In the remaining four, the commission chairs serve in the leadership position for a specified term.

State legislatures

Thousands of state legislative seats will be on the November ballot, with elections taking place in 44 states. Residents in Washington, DC, will vote for several DC Council positions.

Regarding state Senate races, every state except Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia will be holding elections for their legislature's upper chamber. In terms of the lower chamber of the state legislature, 43 states, including Michigan and Minnesota, will be holding legislative elections.

The legislative bodies in the District of Columbia and Nebraska are unicameral; therefore, elections will only be held for the upper chamber of their legislative branch.

In 12 states holding legislative elections this year, Senate seats are for two-year terms, while in the remaining jurisdictions, the upper chamber members serve for four years. Additionally, in 14 states, the Senate members are subject to term limits.

For states holding elections for the lower chamber of the legislature, members serve for two years, except in North Dakota, where House of Representative members serve four-year terms. In 13 states, the members of the lower chamber are subject to term limits.

As of Jan. 10, Republicans control the legislative branch in 28 states, while the Democrats have control of 20 legislative branches, including the D.C. Council. While Nebraska's unicameral legislative branch is technically nonpartisan, a majority of its members identify as Republican and have voted along party lines.

Two state legislatures are currently divided. In Pennsylvania, Republicans control the state Senate, and while Democrats held the majority in the House of Representatives, a seat was vacated following the 2023 General Election, leaving a 101-101 split. A special election has been called for Feb. 13. In Michigan, Democrats control the state Senate but saw partisan control of the House of Representatives revert to a 54-54 split after two Democrat members were elected to local office during the November 2023 election. Special elections are scheduled for April 16 for the two recently vacated seats.

Since 2022, Republicans have held a majority in both chambers of the Alaska State Legislature; however, a coalition of members governs both chambers. In the Senate, a bipartisan majority coalition consisting of all nine Democrats and eight Republicans was formed. Meanwhile, a multipartisan coalition of 19 Republicans, two Democrats and two independents form the House of Representatives majority.

While Regulatory Research Associates has observed no direct correlation between the quality of energy legislation enacted and the political party controlling the legislature, it is typically easier for a governor to implement key policy initiatives, which may or may not be focused on energy issues, when the governor and legislature are of the same political party.

In 2024, there are 23 Republican state trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas and 11 divided governments.

In addition to drafting and passing energy legislation, in 29 states, utility commissioners require Senate confirmation to serve on the regulatory body. In 26 of these states, elections for the Senate seats will occur in November. Additionally, the full legislature confirms commissioners in four states — Alaska, Connecticut, North Carolina and Tennessee — and all four states will hold legislative elections.

New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission members are confirmed by the state's Executive Council, which consists of five elected council members who serve two-year terms. All five terms will be up for election in November. Currently, the council comprises one Democrat and four Republicans.

In South Carolina, the Public Service Commission of South Carolina members are elected by the South Carolina General Assembly from candidates selected by a legislature's 10-member Public Utilities Review Committee, which nominates up to three candidates for each commission seat. The committee comprises three members of the Senate, three members from the House of Representatives and four members from the general public. All 124 House of Representatives and 46 Senate seats will be on the ballot this year. Three South Carolina PSC members are serving past their terms' expiration date, which was June 2022, and the remaining four regulators have terms set to expire in June 2024.

In Tennessee, the governor, the Speaker of the House and the Speaker of the Senate (the lieutenant governor) each appoint two Tennessee Public Utility Commission regulators. All three offices jointly appoint an additional commissioner. Four Tennessee PUC terms are set to expire in June 2026. The Speaker of the House and the Speaker of the Senate will each be responsible for appointing two members. During the 2024 General Election, all 99 state House of Representative seats and 16 state Senates will be on the ballot.

Utility commissions

During the 2024 election, 10 states will hold regular utility commission elections for 15 seats. All 10 utility commissions are controlled by a Republican majority, with eight of the commissions entirely comprising Republican members.

In seven states holding elections, the commissioners serve for six years, whereas commissioners in the remaining three states serve four-year terms.

Commissioners are subject to term limits in three states — Arizona, Montana and Oklahoma. Tony O'Donnell of the Montana Public Service Commission and Bob Anthony of the Oklahoma Corporation Commission are ineligible for reelection due to term limits.

Candidates for the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission are nominated at the state convention of each political party rather than elected during the state's primary election. Incumbent Commissioner Kristie Fiegen announced that she will seek the party nomination during the State Republican Party Convention, which will be held in June 2024.

Georgia utility commission elections

The election of the Georgia Public Service Commission members remains unclear, despite a recent ruling by the US Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit. In November 2023, the Circuit Court handed down a ruling in a case challenging the constitutionality of the state's electoral method of its utility commissioners. The ruling reversed a US District Court's decision, which had struck down the state's PSC election method and stated that the method "unlawfully dilutes the votes of Black citizens under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act."

In its decision, the Circuit Court stated that federal judges cannot compel a state to use single-member districts due to "general principles of federalism," and doing so "would impermissibly alter Georgia's chosen form of government."

The high court decision means a special election for two commission seats could be held as early as March 12, 2024. Vice Chairman Tim Echols and Commissioner Fitz Johnson have been serving well beyond the December 2022 expiration of their commissioner terms following the postponement of the November 2022 elections. Echols was running for reelection to a new six-year term, while Fitz was running in a special election to serve the remainder of a term that expires in December 2024.

If a special election is held in early 2024, Fitz's seat will be on the ballot during the November 2024 general election for a full six-year term. Commissioner Tricia Pridemore's seat is also slated for reelection in November.

The plaintiffs in the federal case have indicated that they are still considering all their options, including a potential appeal to the US Supreme Court. One of the plaintiffs in the case stated that they "are exploring and will pursue all possible legal, regulatory, and policy actions." The Circuit Court had previously denied a motion to stay the November order while the plaintiffs sought clarification from the US Supreme Court.

Lieutenant Governor races

The position of lieutenant governor varies depending on the state.

The roles and responsibilities of state lieutenant governors vary vastly across the country. In 43 states, the lieutenant governor is the next in line regarding the succession to the governor's office. In more than half of the states, the lieutenant governor presides over the state senate.

In most cases, the lieutenant governor is given duties and responsibilities by the governor, including serving on various boards, councils and commissions. In other cases, the lieutenant governor has the authority to appoint members to various positions across state government.

The position does not exist in five states — Arizona, Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon and Wyoming. In 25 states, the candidate for lieutenant governor runs on a joint ticket with the governor, while in 18 states, the candidate for the position runs on a separate ticket. In Tennessee and West Virginia, the Senate president performs the duties and responsibilities of the position.

In 2024, eight states will hold elections for lieutenant governor, with only two incumbents seeking reelection — Utah and Washington. The incumbents in Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Vermont are running for governor in their respective states. The lieutenant governors in Montana and North Dakota have not yet indicated whether they will run again; however, their position runs on a joint ticket with the governor, and in those states, the incumbent governor has not yet declared their candidacy for governor.

As previously mentioned, in West Virginia, the Senate President is the state's lieutenant governor. The Senate elects the position at the start of a new two-year legislative session. Current Senate President Craig Blair was elected to the leadership position in 2021 and reelected in 2023. Blair's seat is one of 17 Senate seats up for election in 2024.

While Republican Randy McNally, the current Tennessee Senate president and lieutenant governor, is not up for reelection in 2024, his term as leader will end before the 2025 legislative session. Therefore, the members of the Senate will be responsible for either renominating McNally or electing a new Senate president.

Attorney General races

State attorneys general are involved in matters involving energy issues to varying degrees. In most states, the attorney general is elected by popular vote in a given election year. The role of a state attorney general varies from one jurisdiction to another, but typically, the duties of the office include enforcing federal and state environmental laws, representing the state and state agencies before the state and federal courts, and, in some cases, acting as the public advocate on issues related to utility regulation.

Out of the 44 attorneys general elected by popular vote, 10 will be on the ballot this year, and only three state incumbents — Indiana, Missouri, and Montana — are seeking reelection so far.

While not term-limited, the attorneys general in three states — North Carolina, Washington, and West Virginia — are not seeking reelection and are instead running in the gubernatorial races in their states. Only one state attorney general — Vermont — has not yet indicated whether they will seek reelection for an additional term.

The incumbent is not running for office in three states — Oregon, Pennsylvania and Utah. Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum and Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes announced they would not seek a fourth term in office. Pennsylvania's attorney general, Michelle Henry, stated she would not run for election after she was appointed to the position by Gov. Josh Shapiro, the previous position holder who secured the governor's seat in 2022.

Treasurer races

In recent years, state treasurers have become more directly involved in energy-related issues. An emerging trend in the investment community is the consideration of ESG factors when making investment decisions. Some in the financial community have used a company's commitment to the environment or climate change and social justice issues when determining their investment strategies.

Historically, these positions have not played a major role in the industry; however, a shift has occurred, and in RRA's view, it is a trend to watch. Decisions made by certain financial institutions to reduce their investments in the fossil fuel industry have pushed some state treasurers and comptrollers to advocate for legislation that would allow them to prohibit banks and financial institutions with certain ESG policies from doing business with state and local entities. Some state treasurers have expanded their focus and included entities they deem to have "boycotted" investments in energy companies.

In 2024, nine states will hold regular elections for their state treasurers, while Arkansas will hold a special election for the remaining two years of the treasurer's term. Five incumbent treasurers — in Missouri, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah and Washington — are seeking additional terms in office.

North Carolina Treasurer Dale Folwell is not seeking reelection but is vying for the Republican nomination for state governor. Riley Moore, the current treasurer in West Virginia, is seeking the Republican nomination to represent the state's 2nd Congressional District in the US House of Representatives. Oregon's treasurer, Tobias Read, is term-limited and seeking the Democrat nomination for state secretary of state. Michael Pieciak, Vermont's treasurer, is the sole position holder who has not yet announced his reelection bid.

In Arkansas, Larry Walther (R) was appointed to the position to replace former Treasurer Mark Lowery, who died in July 2023. Since the position became vacant before the 2024 General Election, the seat will be on the ballot, with the winner serving the remaining two years of the four-year term. Only two candidates filed to run for office — Secretary of State John Thurston (R) and John Pagan (D).

State Supreme Court races

When appealing a state utility commission order or decision, the path plaintiffs must take varies by state. In some cases, an appeal may be made directly to the state's supreme court, while in other instances, litigation must first go before an appellate, county, district and/or superior court.

In recent years, court activity has been on the rise for utilities, with many lawsuits involving wildfire claims, storm response and state energy-related policies. Additionally, since the completion of the 2020 US Census and the resultant modifications to legislative district maps, challenges to many states' approved maps have been brought before state supreme courts.

During the 2024 election cycle, 33 states will hold supreme court judicial elections. In total, 82 seats will be on the ballot across the US.

The court selection processes also vary substantially by state, whether for an initial or subsequent term. Judges can be selected through partisan or nonpartisan elections, gubernatorial appointments, legislative elections, assisted appointments or a hybrid selection process. For additional terms, a majority of the states hold retention elections.

A retention election is when voters are asked whether an incumbent judge or justice should remain in office for another term. The incumbent does not face a challenger in the election. In a majority of states that hold retention elections, the incumbent must receive a majority of the votes; however, some states impose a higher voting threshold for a judge to be retained. If an incumbent fails to reach the voting threshold, the position is filled via the state's vacancy process. In 2024, there will be 15 states holding retention elections for a total of 30 judicial seats.

In 12 states holding elections this year, justices for the state supreme court will be elected via nonpartisan elections, where the candidates are listed on the ballot without their political affiliations listed. In these 12 states, 34 seats will be up for election.

In the remaining six states, the candidates are elected in partisan elections, where their political affiliation is listed on the ballot. This year, 18 partisan seats will be on the ballot.

The terms up for election also vary by state: in 13 states, the justices serve for six years; in 11 states, a term is for eight years; in seven states, the justices serve for 10 years; and in the remaining two states, the terms extend to 12 years.

Primary dates

While the 2024 election season started in January, with primaries being held for the Republican presidential nomination, primary elections for state and congressional races will not begin until March 2024; five states will hold primaries on March 5. The 2024 election season will conclude in December with potential general runoff elections in Georgia and Louisiana.