US imports to hit record high in July amid pre-tariff push: retailers

US imports will set a record in July as retailers unleash a final push to land cargo before new tariffs take effect, the National Retail Federation said Wednesday, capping an early peak season whose magnitude caught many market observers off guard.

The Global Port Tracker (GPT), published monthly by the NRF and Hackett Associates, forecasts that imports for July will hit 2.47 million TEUs, breaking the previous record for a single month set in May 2022 amid the pandemic rebound.

But this month will be the end of an early peak season that began in May and increased in intensity, the GPT forecast shows, with imports for August through November expected to be lower year over year.

“This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties,” Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said in a statement accompanying the Global Port Tracker. 

“The busy back-to-school selling season has already started, and the winter holidays won’t be far behind, so retailers have been working to get products into the US and ready to go before new tariffs can potentially drive prices higher,” Gold added.

Retailers brought fall and holiday merchandise into the country early in anticipation of a change in tariffs on July 24 when existing but temporary Section 122 tariffs are due to be replaced by possibly higher Section 301 tariffs. Importers had also been getting ahead of costlier war-driven fuel surcharges with the quarterly bunker adjustment factor (BAF) resetting on July 1, something that potentially added $300 to $400 per FEU to shippers’ all-in rates from Asia.

Peak season recalibrating

The GPT confirms that this peak season, similar to three of the last four, will reach full health in the summer rather than the traditional pre-pandemic timeline centered on October. Concerns about port strikes and tariffs, along with residual fear of stockouts from the pandemic, have pushed the peak season earlier in recent years.

Meanwhile, import bookings from Asia to the US have remained strong into July, data from Vizion shows. Some 327,151 TEUs were booked from Asia for the week ending July 5, down from the year-to-date highs seen in early and mid-June, but still among the highest readings of 2026.

The traditional peak season tied to Asia may be a thing of the past, with multiple, overlapping demand waves impacting available capacity and demand. That’s been evident this year, with early shipments driving rates out of Asia not just to North America, but also to Europe, Latin America, and Africa. 

Demand may also be getting harder to forecast. GPT in May forecast that volume in May and June would be up 11% and 8%, respectively. Much of the rest of the industry was also surprised by the surge, citing a range of factors including higher fuel prices and an earlier Amazon Prime Day. 

Consumer sentiment has generally swung on perceptions of the US-Iran war, with the Conference Board’s index recovering in June as oil prices eased, ticking to 91.2 from a downwardly revised 90.6 notched in May. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that the truce with Iran was effectively over, but both sides were still talking. 

Despite the rise in consumer prices, US retail sales have remained resilient, expanding nearly 1% in May, according to the latest data from the Commerce Department.

The GPT forecasts imports at 13 US ports: Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville and Houston.

This article was originally published by the Journal of Commerce on July 8, 2026.