US retailers forecast early — and brief — peak shipping season

US retailers on June 8 upgraded their forecast for June imports, confirming that the peak shipping season has come early this year as importers frontload fall and holiday merchandise ahead of new tariffs and what could be even higher fuel prices.

But that cargo spike is expected to be short-lived, with the National Retail Federation (NRF) lowering its prior forecast for imports landing through the rest of the summer and into early fall.

“The current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said Monday in the Global Port Tracker (GPT). “After this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll.”

GPT is published monthly by the NRF and Hackett Associates.

Imports in June are now forecast to total 2.25 million TEUs, up from 2.13 million TEUs in the May GPT and 14.3% higher year over year. The year-over-year gain is skewed somewhat by the fact that imports plummeted last May and June after the Trump administration implemented widespread tariffs on US trading partners.

After the June bump, the GPT expects weaker volumes through September.

July imports are forecast to total 2.19 million TEUs, down from 2.2 million TEUs in last month’s report and 8.4% lower year over year. August imports of 2.12 million TEUs were downgraded from 2.19 million TEUs and would be 8.6% lower than August 2025. September’s imports were revised lower to 2.06 million TEUs from 2.08 million TEUs, and would be down 2.2% on the year.

The GPT, in its initial import forecast for October, expects 2.08 million TEUs, up a marginal 0.1% year over year.

The 10% global tariffs imposed under Section 122 of the US Trade Act are set to expire on July 24, to be replaced by tariffs of 10% to 12.5%, which is contributing to the decision by retailers to frontload imports.

“We expect to see a year-over-year increase this month that’s partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could start coming in August,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in the statement accompanying the GPT. “Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty.”

An index produced by maritime intelligence provider Vizion shows booking demand for Chinese imports is increasing. The index hit its 2026 high of 117 for the week ending May 11, the most recent data available.

Reflecting the strong import volumes, trans-Pacific spot rates have jumped to their highest level this year. West Coast rates of $5,000 per FEU are up almost 80% in just the past month, according to data from Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Rates to the East Coast of $6,100 per FEU are almost 60% higher.

Spot rates could go even higher as carriers have pre-filed an additional general rate increase effective June 15, forwarders told the Journal of Commerce.

The GPT forecasts imports at 13 US ports: Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville and Houston.

This article was originally published in the Journal of Commerce on June 8, 2026.