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Blog — Jun 17, 2026
The S&P 500 reached fresh all-time highs in Q1 2026, surpassing 7,100 as strong corporate fundamentals offset an increasingly complex geopolitical backdrop.
The quarter itself told a bifurcated story: solid momentum through the first two months, followed by a sharp shift as the escalation of the US–Iran conflict in late February triggered an energy price shock and renewed uncertainty around corporate cost structures. Because much of Q1 business activity predated the conflict, headline results effectively reflect a pre-shock environment. As a result, commentary and forward guidance were the real watch items this earnings season.
What the numbers did deliver was an exceptionally strong beat rate. 78% of reporting companies exceeded EPS estimates, underscoring the resilience of corporate earnings. The AI theme remained the dominant force within IT, with the Magnificent Seven broadly outperforming expectations on cloud and AI-related revenues. The sector led the market, driving a 33% year-over-year increase in operating EPS.
With the remainder of 2026 still priced for elevated earnings growth, the key question heading into Q2 earnings is not whether the macro overhang will weigh on performance—but how much of it has already been absorbed, and how much remains ahead.
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