Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 9 March 2026

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

US inflation and UK GDP under spotlight amid Middle East war assessment

The markets will be focused on events in the Middle East but have key inflation releases out of the US to divert attention, as well as UK GDP, eurozone production and mainland China’s inflation numbers to watch out for.

The developing situation in the Middle East will inevitably dominate the markets in the coming week, and in particular any signs of the war becoming protracted. While a short-term spike in energy prices is unwelcome, it is not the game changer that a longer bout of elevated oil and gas prices potentially represents in terms of economic growth and inflation forecasting. S&P Global Connect users can access our regular updates via the MENA regional conflict pages.

A source of encouragement was that, prior to the outbreak of war, the global economy was showing signs of renewed life, which could add to resilience in the face of the Middle East crisis, especially if the war is short-lived. The global PMI’s output index hit one of its highest readings since the pandemic in February, signaling an upturn in global GDP growth to an annualized 3.0% rate.

We need to wait until 24^th March for the first real signs of economic health since the war started via the March flash PMIs, but the week still provides some important economic releases. In particular, the US inflation picture will be updated through both the CPI and the Fed’s preferred PCE price index. More details on US economic growth will also be provided through the second estimate of Q4 GDP, with prior estimates having disappointed. Some clues as to how US households are feeling will also be gleaned from the University of Michigan survey.

In Europe, monthly GDP data are issued in the UK, and we will be looking for signs that growth has started to pick up following encouraging signals from PMI surveys. The UK labour market is also under scrutiny from the REC/KPMG recruitment industry survey. Elsewhere in Europe, a key release is industrial production data for the eurozone, including for Germany, which PMI data have indicated to be reviving at a pace not seen for nearly four years.

In APAC, China’s ongoing National People’s Congress is accompanied by consumer and producer price updates, while GDP data are issued for both Japan and South Korea.

Also watch out for the PMI-based Global Business Outlook survey, released Wednesday, and the S&P Global Investment Manager Index for March, released Tuesday.

Chart of the week: Global economic growth accelerated in February

The global PMI hit its highest levels since May 2024, and one of the best readings seen since the pandemic, in February, indicating that global economic growth had more or less returned to its long-run trend rate ahead of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. This points to promising signs of life given the uncertainty that was already simmering around US tariffs and the Middle East situation through February, but March surveys will be eagerly assessed to see whether growth has faltered in the face of the ongoing crisis.

Read more about recent global PMI trends here.