Permian Resources set for natural gas upswing as oil and NGL prices stall

Permian Resources Corp. (NYSE: PR) is expected to see strong natural gas revenue growth in fiscal 2026, on the back of rising natural gas prices, Visible Alpha consensus estimates show.

Analysts expect Permian’s natural gas sales to surge 142% year-on-year to about $318 million, bringing gas to just over 6% of total revenue. In contrast, crude oil revenues are seen marginally contracting by 0.2% to approximately $4.2 billion, while natural gas liquids (NGLs) revenues are forecast to fall about 7% to $613 million due to prevailing commodity price pressures.

The anticipated natural gas upswing is primarily a function of higher realized gas prices rather than a dramatic lift in output; production is projected to expand a modest 6.4% in 2026, compared with prior years’ double-digit growth pace. Consensus sees natural gas prices, however, climbing as much as 123% to around $1.20 per Mcf, while crude and NGL pricing languish under broader macro headwinds.

Permian has also been boosting midstream flexibility to capture better pricing. Management guidance indicates that natural gas realizations are poised to shift from a Waha Hub discount to a premium versus Waha pricing, supported by transport agreements into Gulf Coast and Dallas–Fort Worth markets.

This comes against a broader macro backdrop in which US natural gas production is set to hit record levels in 2026 and 2027, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), with significant output growth forecast across major basins including the Permian, Appalachia, and Haynesville.

Permian’s 2026 revenue profile may increasingly reflect the growing commercial relevance of natural gas, even as oil and NGLs remain the core earnings drivers.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.