Geopolitical Risk Brief: March 2026

Our country risk experts provide insight into key geopolitical events that could impact the economic environment in March. 

The US and Israel’s objectives for the Middle East war and associated regional deployments indicate that the current tempo of combat operations will likely persist for at least another two-to-four weeks.

The war continues to involve strikes on Iranian military leadership and military, security and nuclear assets. Iran’s response has predominantly involved uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missile strikes across the region focused on US military assets and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Israeli critical infrastructure.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on March 12 said Iran would maintain strikes on US bases around the region and block the Strait of Hormuz. We expect the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to continue to target civilian critical infrastructure and US commercial assets in Gulf countries, as US-Israeli targeting continues to include Iranian civilian and critical infrastructure.

Iran’s military has also attacked shipping across the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, effectively preventing transit for most vessels. Disruption to traffic in Hormuz is probably seen by Iran’s leadership as its most direct military and financial pressure point to force the US and Israel to halt attacks. Such Iranian attacks on shipping are therefore very likely to continue for the duration of the war. 

S&P Global Market Intelligence maritime tracking data indicates that between March 1 and March 14, there was a 96% decrease in automatic identification system (AIS) broadcast transits of all ship types compared with the previous 10 days (Feb. 14–28). Iranian authorities said they had allowed some vessels, affiliated with mainland China, Bangladesh, Turkey and India, to pass. 

A recurring theme of the past year has been the global economy’s ability to shrug off persistent high levels of uncertainty and periodic turbulence in financial markets. In the first two months of 2026, the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) showed unexpectedly strong upward momentum. The war in the Middle East and its impact on commodity prices is likely to provide a much sterner test of this resilience. 

The pricing surveys included in S&P Global’s “flash” PMIs®, to be released on March 24, will give us an early indication of the scale of the initial impacts on input prices and how much is being passed through to output prices. Market-derived measures of inflation expectations in the major economies have not been materially affected by rising energy prices to date, partly due to expectations of less accommodative monetary policy. 

Given the assumption of a relatively short-lived period of elevated energy prices, reducing the risk of “second round” effects, we expect the major central banks to “look through” the expected near-term rises in headline inflation rates. However, a key lesson from the early 2020s was that central banks in advanced economies underestimated the magnitude and persistence of the inflationary pressures that followed the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This increases the risk of a less-accommodating approach this time around.

US economic interest in Venezuela has extended to mining, leading to reduced regulation, although security risks to operations will likely remain significant.

On March 9, the Venezuelan National Assembly approved in first debate proposed changes to the country’s mining law. This followed other changes to mining-sector regulation. The US Treasury issued General License 51 (GL51), which permits transactions with Venezuelan state-owned gold company Minerven on March 6 after several years of sanctions. Meanwhile, on March 5, Minerven also reportedly signed an agreement with trading firm Trafigura to supply 650-1,000 kilogram of gold doré bars for export to US refineries.

The mining law amendments and the GL51 coincided with the restoration of US-Venezuela diplomatic relations and US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum’s visit to Caracas accompanied by US mining company representatives. Significant regulatory changes are likely in Venezuela’s revised mining law, including renewed access to international arbitration.

However, international mining companies would likely face considerable security risks despite government pledges. Mining operations are often controlled locally by non-state armed groups including the “sindicatos,” organized criminal groups and Colombian insurgent groups.