Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 9 February 2026

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

US non-farm payrolls and inflation rescheduled, UK and eurozone GDP

The coming week sees the delayed publication of official US labor market and inflation data, both having the potential to fuel Fed policy expectations. Mainland China likewise provides an inflation update and the UK and Eurozone issue fresh GDP numbers.

The federal government shutdown means the release of the US employment report has been delayed from 6^th February to 11^th February, and the inflation (CPI) release has been pushed back to the 13^th. Payroll growth is expected to have risen from 50k in December to 70k in January and the unemployment rate to have held at 4.4%, while earnings growth looks to have cooled to 3.6% from 3.8%. If borne out, this would likely add to an easing bias among policymakers, though not shift expectations that rates are on hold in the near-term. The update to CPI inflation could be more market moving if there is any material change in the headline or core rates, after they held steady at 2.7% and 2.6% respectively in December. PMI data hint at sustained above-target inflation, but any marked cooling will add renewed fuel to rate cut calls. The FOMC held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% in January after cutting three times late last year, citing the need to wait and assess labor market and inflation trends.

Inflation data are also updated for mainland China and will be eyed in particular for evidence as to whether deflationary pressures are becoming less of a concern. PMI data showed the first rise in business selling prices for 14 months in January, and prior CPI data showed the annual inflation rate hitting a near-three year high of 0.8% in December.

In Europe, the UK comes into added focus after a surprisingly tight decision to hold interest rates steady at the Bank of England’s February meeting. The meeting lifted the odds of a rate cut in March. Policymakers are concerned in particular about the labour market’s recent weakness, drawing eyes on Monday’s upcoming recruitment industry survey. However, monthly GDP for December, plus a full fourth quarter GDP reading, will also give some guidance as to whether the UK economy is picking up momentum, as indicated by the latest PMI numbers. Eurozone GDP is also updated for the fourth quarter, having initially shown a 0.3% rise, in line with the PMI.

Also watch out for Tuesday’s Investment Manager Index™ (IMI™), polling fund managers for their views on market trends and drivers at the start of February. January’s edition is available here.