Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 23 February 2026

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

Inflation data to help guide policy trends in the US, Europe and Australia

Upcoming data will help guide markets on central bank policy, and in particular whether Japan and Australia might soon see further rate hikes.

Fresh clues will be sought as to changing economic dynamics after the February flash PMI surveys showed growth slowing in the US but accelerating across the other major developed economies. Although adverse weather in some states likely played a role, US business activity growth slipped to a ten-month low in February. Japan’s expansion meanwhile hit a 33-month high and UK growth climbed to the fastest in 22-months. This means that, so far this year, the US expansion is now lagging that of the UK and Japan and drawing closer to the lacklustre pace seen in the eurozone, albeit the latter picking up some momentum to draw a further contrast with the US.

The US flash PMI also once again saw above average price growth, helping in part explain some of the spending aversion evident in the US PMI data, with many firms continuing to blame tariffs and affordability issues for order book malaise, especially in terms of exports. 

Hence, we will be awaiting producer price data alongside factory orders and consumer confidence for the US to gain further insights into economic growth and inflation trajectories. Likewise in Europe, fourth quarter GDP data for Germany and France are accompanied by preliminary February CPI inflation readings for France, Germany and Spain.

Consumer confidence statistics for Europe will also help shed light on whether lower interest rates in the UK and eurozone are benefitting households.

In APAC, industrial production data out of Japan and CPI inflation for Australia will be important to assess for policy implications. The Bank of Japan is poised to tighten policy further in the coming months after raising interest rates to a 30-year high back in December, as is the Reserve Bank of Australia, which hiked rates for the first time since 2023 in February and warned of more hikes to come if inflation proved worrying in the first quarter.

Fourth quarter GDP data are also released for India, which has been a sustained strong performer in the PMI rankings globally, albeit losing a little momentum at the tail end of 2025, as well as Singapore and Hong Kong SAR. Interest rate decisions are meanwhile due for Thailand and South Korea.