Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 16 February 2026

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

Flash PMI survey updates accompanied by key GDP and inflation data

The week ahead should provide plenty of insights into economic trends for markets and policymakers in the world’s major economies. Flash PMI survey releases for February are accompanied by inflation numbers in the UK, US and Japan, with the latter two economies also reporting fourth quarter GDP.

The flash PMI data on Friday will provide keenly awaited updates on economic conditions around the world. January’s data showed US business activity growing at a reduced rate compared to the strong pace seen through much of late last year, while growth accelerated in Japan, the UK and Australia. Although the eurozone underperformed with only modest growth, it saw the business mood brighten markedly to hint at better times to come. The February PMI data will therefore give insights into whether these growth patterns are continuing to shift in favour of Japan and Europe, while also providing fresh clues as to inflation and hiring trends. Prior data showed price pressures lifting higher globally, though jobs data were more mixed: strong job gains in Japan and Australia contrasted with steep declines in the UK and Germany and a modest jobs gain in the US.

We will also be especially keen to see how overall PMI output levels compare with business sentiment, as a wide disparity continued to persist in January as growth proved resilient despite historically low global confidence (see chart).

Official inflation data are also published in the US on Friday in the form of the Fed’s preferred PCE data, which last showed a 2.8% annual rise, alongside the advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP. The Fed’s latest decision to hold rates steady will meanwhile be scrutinised through the release of the meeting’s minutes on Wednesday. Also watch out for US durable goods orders and industrial production data.

Inflation and fourth quarter GDP data are also published for Japan during the week, with any signs of strong growth and rising inflation likely to tip the balance in favour of an early rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

In Europe, official labour market, inflation and retail sales data will provide more clues as to which way the Bank of England will move after a close decision to hold rates steady at its last policy meeting. The Eurozone benefits from updated consumer confidence and industrial production numbers.

Interest rate decisions are due for New Zealand, Indonesia and the Philippines.