Flutter Entertainment Q4 miss prompts sharp US reset for 2026

Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT), owner of the FanDuel gambling platform in the US, saw its shares drop after reporting fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, February 26, missing Visible Alpha consensus expectations across key market segments. The company also issued 2026 earnings guidance that fell well short of analyst expectations, triggering downward revisions in forward-looking estimates, going into 2026.

The gambling giant saw slower new-customer sign-ups and moderating growth in wagering in 2025. Revenue of $4.7 billion in Q4 fell short of Visible Alpha consensus expectations by 4.4%. The shortfall was driven primarily by the US business. US revenue of $2.1 billion fell short of consensus expectations by 5.9%. Sportsbook revenue was the biggest disappointment, while iGaming revenue proved more resilient, missing expectations by a narrower 2.9%.

Operationally, average monthly players (AMPs) rose just 3.2% year-on-year, far below the 10.5% anticipated, suggesting softer engagement and/or customer acquisition efficiency.

While net income and EPS were down year-on-year, the fall wasn’t as bad as analysts had penciled in.

The bigger reset, however, is forward-looking. Analysts have cut Q1 2026 revenue forecasts by 6.6%, with US revenue slashed 14.6%. Within US revenue segments, Sportsbook revenue projections are now cut by 18.3%, iGaming by 5.1%, and other revenue by 14%.

Full-year 2026 expectations have also been lowered: total revenue estimates are now down 4.4%, while US revenue has been trimmed by 10.1%. Forecast US growth for 2026 has effectively halved, falling from 24.7% expected preQ to 12.1%.

Earnings expectations have moved even more sharply. Consensus now sees FY 2026 net income 25% lower than previously projected, with EPS down 26%. By contrast, international forecasts remain broadly unchanged, highlighting that the reset is largely a US story.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.