Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 2 February 2026

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the ‘Download Full Report’ link.

PMIs, payrolls and policy meetings

Highlights from the coming week’s data diary include the US employment report, global PMI surveys and eurozone inflation, while central bank decisions are scheduled for the UK, the euro area and Australia.

PMI surveys of both manufacturing and service sector business conditions are published during the week and will provide insights into growth, trade, inflation and job market trends around the world at the start of 2026. Prior data showed global growth having cooled to a six-month low in December, in part linked to a slowing US economy. This softer pace of US growth likely persisted into January, according to the flash PMIs, contrasting with some more encouraging signals from Europe and Japan. PMI updates from mainland China and ASEAN economies will also be eagerly awaited, especially after the latter showed signs of reviving despite the uncertain global trade environment.

The PMIs build the scene ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll report, which will provide guidance on a key area of concern to US policymakers. With inflation having so far proven more benign that many hawks had feared, the focus has been on the need to cut rates in response to the recent softness of the labor market. December’s report showed just 50k jobs created after a similarly subdued 56k rise in November, with the unemployment rate running at 4.4%, one of the highest rates for four years. But there is a growing belief that a more serious downturn in the labor market might be necessary to prompt any further loosening from the Fed, meaning Friday’s report could prove material in guiding rate expectations.

No change in policy is meanwhile expected when ECB rate setters meet on Thursday, with the central bank seeing itself as being in a “good place”. Eurozone inflation has been hovering around the ECB’s target in recent months, and the economy is showing modest signs of improvement.

While Bank of England officials have also become more relaxed about the inflation outlook, and there are signs that UK business activity has picked up since last year’s Budget, there are worries about the growth outlook amid a slumping labour market. Although no change in policy is priced in by many for the coming week’s Bank of England meeting, a rate cut is seen as a possibility in March. 

In APAC, market anticipation has built for a February hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia following recent upside CPI surprises, though the latest flash PMI data suggest that price pressures could moderate again in the coming months.