Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 1 December 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the ‘Download Full Report’ link.

Worldwide PMI survey data for manufacturing and services are released by S&P Global in the coming week, accompanied by additional US numbers from the ISM.

The November PMI survey data follow provisional flash PMI releases which pointed to an ongoing US outperformance among the major developed economies in terms of both manufacturing and service sector growth. However, eurozone business growth was sustained at one of the strongest rates seen over the past two and a half years, and Japan’s growth rate remained one of the highest recorded in the past year. The good news was tempered, however, by growth coming close to stalling in the UK amid uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget.

PMI data for mainland China as well as other manufacturing-oriented Asian economies, notably including Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam, will also be keenly awaited to assess the impact of US tariff policy, both on national performances as well as shifting broader global trade patterns.

The US November PMI data from S&P Global and the ISM take particular prominence given the ongoing disruptions to official data releases caused by the government shutdown. However, some official data are due to be released, including job openings (JOLTS) data, albeit only relating to August, and import and export prices for September. However, ADP employment data for November and University of Michigan consumer confidence data are also released to help guide views on the US labour market and household sentiment in relation to spending and affordability.

In Europe, eurozone inflation is signalled to have remained comfortably close to the ECB’s 2% target, with the flash PMI data having indicated benign price pressures overall, despite lingering signs of sticky services inflation. The eurozone also sees a third estimate of third quarter GDP updated alongside fresh retail sales data. In the UK, the PMIs are accompanied by Halifax house price data.

A rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India is meanwhile widely anticipated at its December meeting. After a series of cuts in the first half of the year the RBI has held rates steady, but there’s a widespread expectation that lower inflation will allow policymakers to sanction another 25 basis point reduction to take the policy rate down to 5.25%. Although India continues to report a strong economic performance, there’s a wish to stimulate more domestic spending to meet a higher growth potential.