Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 6 October 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

The outlook for US interest rates comes under the radar with the publication of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and a speech by Jerome Powell. UK and eurozone economic prospects will also be eyed via jobs data and retail sales, and a new head at New Zealand’s central bank takes the helm amid growing concerns over the economy.

Policymakers’ views on the health of the US economy and the inflation outlook will come under increased scrutiny as the coming week not only brings the minutes from the last FOMC meeting but also a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The FOMC cut the fed funds rate for the first time this year at its September meeting, but policymakers are clearly split on the rates path going forward. While nine policymakers pencilled in two more rate cuts in 2025 in the so-called ‘dot plot’ projections, one (new voter Stephen Miran) sees even more cuts, two see just one cut and seven see either no rate cuts or even higher rates. The central bank is juggling a weakening jobs market against the possibility of sticky tariff-related inflation. Powell himself has warned against counting on more rate cuts in the coming months. As far as data goes, trade, inventories and consumer confidence data will be adding to the picture of an economy which appears to be showing resilience but with caution dominating the outlook, and dampening jobs growth amid policy uncertainty.

In Europe, construction PMIs for the UK and Eurozone are accompanied by Halifax house price data and recruitment industry survey in the former, while the eurozone also sees retail sales and German trade data published. The UK government will be eager to see some better economic news, especially on the labour market, after early PMI data showed the economy losing momentum amid further steep job losses. Eurozone policymakers will meanwhile be hoping for further signs of domestic demand reviving, notably via the retail sales data, to confirm the tentative indications of economic recovery seen in the PMI data.

In APAC, central bank decisions are due in New Zealand, Thailand and the Philippines. The former is especially interesting as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has a new head, Anna Breman, who takes the helm as the country faces a double-dip recession risk after GDP fell on a year ago in the second quarter. The central bank cut rates to 3.0% at its last meeting.