Mercedes-Benz to face another quarter of revenue decline

Mercedes-Benz Group AG (FWB: MBG) is expected to post a ninth consecutive quarterly revenue decline when it reports third-quarter results on Wednesday, October 29, as trade tensions and intensifying competition from Chinese electric vehicle makers erode demand in key markets.

Visible Alpha consensus estimates point to Q3 revenue of €32.7 billion, down 5% year-on-year, as sales in China and the US—two of the carmaker’s largest markets—remain under pressure. The decline, however, is expected to ease from the 10% drop recorded in the previous quarter. Analysts cite higher US tariffs on European-made vehicles and a flood of competitively priced Chinese EVs as key pressures on performance.

The Mercedes-Benz Cars division, which accounts for roughly three-quarters of group revenue, is forecast to see sales fall 6% to €24.1 billion, driven by an 11% drop in vehicle deliveries to 446,164 units for the quarter. The Vans segment is also expected to soften, with revenue projected to decline 10% to €4.2 billion on a 6% fall in unit sales. By contrast, Mercedes-Benz Mobility is expected to show modest growth, with revenue up 1.2% to €6.1 billion.

Consensus estimates point to diluted earnings per share of €1.10 for the quarter, up slightly from €1.00 in the previous quarter, reflecting tight cost controls and a continued focus on higher-margin models. The group’s “Top-End Vehicle” strategy—covering its Maybach, AMG, and G-Class lines—remains central to offsetting volume declines and preserving profitability.

Mercedes-Benz is also accelerating its push into next-generation electric platforms and exploring growth in emerging markets such as India and Southeast Asia, where luxury demand remains resilient. However, analysts caution that geopolitical risks, slowing European demand, and continued price competition in China may weigh on near-term performance.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.